Sure, one can look at the Academy Awards as a self-congratulatory group hug by an insulated community convinced of its own importance while oblivious to the real cares of the outside world.
Whatever. I still get caught up in the spirit of the thing, and I like it that way, damn it. Plus, this year the Academy actually did a pretty good job of picking nominees that exhibited quality (Letters from Iwo Jima, Mark Wahlberg) over hype (Dreamgirls, Jack Nicholson).
The only problem is that the Oscars come at the end of an awards show season that has already seen the Golden Globes, BAFTAS and various guilds and film critics give out their awards, so many of the night's big winners are a forgone conclusion.
Still, the Oscars are always guaranteed to create conversation around the water cooler about films and, really, isn't that what it's all about?
With that spirit in mind, here is a quick look at the favorites in some of the major categories, followed by my opinion of who should win and who the potential candidates are for possible upsets. Because if there weren't any surprises, it just wouldn't be the Oscars.
Best Picture
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine
It's the only feel-good movie out of the nominees, and in a year of so many heavy films, that distinction could work to its benefit. Plus, it won the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards, the two most reliable indicators for this category.
Should Win: Letters from Iwo Jima
The anti-war film war film. It forces viewers to confront their expectations of what to feel towards the "enemy." It's a powerful, moving statement about the real cost of war.
Upset: The Departed
People just love this film, and everyone is rooting for Martin Scorsese. It has everything going for it, but it feels more like a popcorn movie than a Best Picture shoo-in.
Best Director
Will Win: Martin Scorsese
Given his body of work, people have been hankering for him to win for quite a while now. And this time (unlike his previous two nominations for Gangs of New York and The Aviator) the movie merits the win.
Should Win: Scorsese
He handles his ensemble elegantly and creates the most finely-crafted piece of pop-entertainment of the year.
Upset: Clint Eastwood
He's won the last two times Scorsese was nominated, and he still commands a lot of respect. In any other year he'd deserve the award, but it's Scorsese's time.
Best Actor
Will Win: Forest Whitaker
He gives a larger-than-life performance that you just don't see anymore: the kind that Academy voters will eat up with a spoon. Plus, he's won just about everything else.
Should Win: Ryan Gosling
Personally, I'm tired of actors winning awards for imitating historical characters. I don't care how much subtext they bring. Gosling creates someone so unflinchingly real and pulls off all his contradictions so coherently that you feel like you might run into him in an alley outside the theater afterwards. And he builds his character from scratch.
Upset: Peter O'Toole
He hasn't won anything this year, but don't count out the sympathy vote. The man who played Lawrence of Arabia and has now been nominated seven times has never won the award.
Best Actress
Will Win: Helen Mirren
She's won everything so, really, her picking up the Oscar is just a formality at this point. It's too bad because this is the category with the five strongest nominees.
Should Win: Penelpe Cruz
As much as I love Kate Winslet and want her to win, Cruz perfectly captures all of the subtleties of a lively yet deeply troubled woman coming to grips with her past. It's a startling and heartbreaking performance.
Upset: The one who arrives to the ceremony on the back of a flying pig.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Eddie Murphy
This is a close race because none of the nominees have managed to secure much momentum. Murphy is probably the surest bet (his performance is easily the best in Dreamgirls) but he's not a clear favorite and Norbit coming out right before the ballots were due might not have helped his chances.
Should Win: Jackie Earl Haley
He plays the creepiest, and yet most sympathetic, child molester that you've ever seen. It's an uncomfortable performance that gets under your skin and doesn't leave you once you've left the theatre.
Upset: Mark Wahlberg
He steals the show from a lot of big name actors and shows the world that he can act (as if Three Kings and I Heart Huckabees hadn't already proved that). But also look for Djimon Hounsou to come out of nowhere and surprise everybody.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson
Her acting is more style than substance, but she absolutely kills "And I'm Telling You (I'm Not Going)."
Should Win: Rinko Kikuchi
Her portrayal of a deaf Japanese high school student took me by surprise when I saw Babel. She shows the vulnerability beneath her character's brazen veneer and easily becomes the most interesting storyline in the movie.
Upset: Adriana Barraza
This other great performance in Babel has been getting a lot of attention recently. Her sympathetic performance puts a human face on all of the immigrants from south of the border looking for a better life in America.
The Academy Awards are live at 8pm this Sunday on ABC.
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