Remember Virginia's losses in Puerto Rico? Nope, not me. For the most part since December, fans have wiped those games clean from collective memory.
Gone. Never happened.
Yet, while you tried vehemently to forget the losses, the team did its best to learn from them. Upon returning to Charlottesville, coach Dave Leitao said he wanted to "go back to square one" and "re-teach everything." Like any good coach, he didn't say Virginia would dismiss the games but instead would quickly learn from them and move on.
The result: The catalyst that would eventually carry the Cavaliers through a successful regular season. In the face of adversity, Virginia responded admirably.
Now in March, we're standing upon another portion of the season that is begging to be forgotten. Sure, a gift-wrapped No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament diverted some attention from the last 12 days. Nonetheless, it is difficult to shake the fact that Virginia's last two games were both losses -- to a pair of the worst teams in the ACC.
The temptation is to act like it never happened. But like Puerto Rico, this is not the solution.
How the Cavaliers respond to this stretch will determine their success in the NCAA Tournament.
After Puerto Rico --Virginia's first major "bounce back" -- the Cavaliers did three notable things better: 1) they played like they had something to prove; 2) they played with emotion; and 3) they won close games.
Before Puerto Rico, Virginia was expected to fight for a berth in the NCAA Tournament; afterwards, that was very much in question. In Puerto Rico, they played without emotion; since then, they largely have and in doing so have won a number of close games.
This trio of improvements is in large part intricately connected. Teams that have something to prove often play with emotion. Teams that play with emotion tend to win close games.
I've talked since before the season about Virginia as an "it" team -- a team that, though not perfect, invigorates the fan base through its personalities and storylines, coupled with reasonable success. We've also categorized the Cavaliers as "gritty" or "emotional" periodically during the year.
But these categorizations connote something else: "Gritty" teams almost always play on the margin. And for the most part, since Puerto Rico, the Cavaliers distinguished themselves by succeeding in close games.
Numbers back up such claims. Looking back at the year, I defined games decided by six points or less -- two possessions -- as being "on the margin." Sure, some close games might have been decided outside of that boundary, but we have to draw the line somewhere.
During this season, Virginia has played 11 games "on the margin" with a 7-4 record. In conference games alone, the Cavaliers played in eight such contests, finishing with a 6-2 record.
In fact, performance in games "on the margin" almost directly paralleled the final standings of the ACC.
If you take out Carolina (who had 10 ACC wins by 12 points or more) and look at every other team in the conference, ACC games "on the margin" have defined success because of the overall parity of the league.
Virginia was 6-2 in regular conference games decided by six points or fewer. Virginia Tech and Boston College finished 5-1 in such games and amongst the top four in the conference. Maryland (1-4), Georgia Tech (1-3) and Duke (1-5) performed worse on the margin and finished further down the line. Clemson (4-7) and Florida State (2-5) fell in line after that.
The regular season dregs of the ACC-- N.C. State, Wake Forest and Miami -- rarely played in close games, instead combining for 19 conference losses by 12 points or more.
This phenomenon is true not just for the ACC, but for most other conferences. The best teams in tight conferences -- those who make the NCAA Tournament --are often the ones who won close regular season or conference tournament games. Albany, Virginia's first-round opponent, finished 10-3 in games decided by six points or fewer. Tennessee, a potential second-round match up for the Cavaliers, played 11 games "on the margin" and won eight of them. The teams with the most success "on the margin" are the teams that go dancing. And success in March is based on playing with emotion and having something to prove. Gritty, emotional teams pencil themselves into the next round.
Coming off of two devastating losses but rewarded with a No. 4 seed, it would be tempting for the Cavaliers to erase the last week and a half from their memories. This, however, is not the solution.
The Cavaliers ability to re-adopt their post-Puerto Rico tenets will define their success this weekend. They are going to face teams that have played well "on the margin." To distinguish itself, however, Virginia must fall back on what has propelled the team to success "on the margin": emotional play with something to prove.
If the Cavaliers bounce back, get emotional and play like they are still making the case for No. 4 seed, then the Sweet 16 awaits.
If not, there will only be regret -- an unfortunate ending to a special season.
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