THOSE who believe that history has a sense of irony must surely be chuckling over the news that Russia, the country whose nuclear weapons kept the United States on alert during the Cold War, may end up being the key to halting Iran's nuclear program. On Monday the Russian state-owned company Atomstroiexport, which is contracted to build a nuclear plant in the Iranian city Bushehr, announced that it would not send its first nuclear fuel deliveries to the plant. Without the fuel, which had been scheduled to arrive this month, the plant will not be able to meet its scheduled launch date of September. The company's decision is more than just a temporary delay; it is a potential opportunity for a real solution to the nuclear crisis. The Bush administration needs to take advantage of this opening and push for effective sanctions to thwart Iran's nuclear program.
Since the beginning of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iranian leaders never relinquished their nuclear aspirations. The country's progress towards nuclear capability has remained steady, whether its leaders were considered hard-liners or moderates. Despite the obvious dangers of nuclear weapons in the hands of a violent theocracy, the world's unease did not truly turn into alarm until Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in 2005. Since becoming president, Ahmadinejad has shocked the world with denials of the Holocaust and threats to Israel's very existence. There have been persistent reports that he believes in an apocalyptic strain of Shia Islam, and sees nuclear war as a step towards the return of the Mahdi, an Islamic messiah figure.
Although Ahmadinejad has made the risks posed by the Iranian nuclear program clearer than ever, so far neither the Bush administration nor the international community have put forth a workable strategy for thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions. Full-scale military action would be extremely costly, both in terms of lives and the damage to the international economy that would result from the likely oil shortages. Some other form of action, then, should be tried while there is still time to stop the program, and the most likely candidate would be economic sanctions. This could be done most effectively through the UN Security Council, but so far the threat of a veto by Russia or China has prevented the imposition of effective sanctions.
However, the March 12th announcement that Russian company Atomstroiexport was delaying its delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran raised the possibility that Russia is getting behind the sanctions. According to the Washington Post, a frustrated, anonymous Russian government source was quoted in Russian news outlets as saying "the Iranians are abusing our constructive relations and have done nothing to convince our colleagues of the consistency of Tehran's policies."
Considering Russia's vulnerability to terrorism, supporting economic sanctions on Iran should not be a difficult move. Russia has had a long struggle with Chechen separatists who have often resorted to terrorism. In November of 2005, The Telegraph reported that Iran secretly was training Chechens in terrorist techniques. Less than three years ago, of course, Chechen rebels took over a thousand Russians hostages in a school at Beslan, an affair that ended with over three hundred hostages dead. Imagine the death toll if, for whatever reason, Iran supplied those rebels with a nuclear bomb. With a nuclear bomb, Iran would easily be able to blackmail its northern neighbor with just that sort of threat.
Sanctions could prevent that future. If the world united around large-scale sanctions, refusing to sell Iran needed goods, the country's economy would fall into shambles, and raise popular pressure the government to come to a compromise. According to a February 26th BBC article, criticism of Ahmadinejad has been increasing within Iran from many political factions. Much of his support has been from the poor, who expected economic relief, but instead under Ahmadinejad inflation has risen and the unemployment rate is unchanged. If sanctions did not force the current government to abandon the nuclear program, then the resulting economic misery would likely force it from power.
Understandably, the governments of the free world are hesitant to take action that might result in oil shortages or even worse consequences. The longer we wait, though, the farther along Iran's nuclear program gets, and the more likely it becomes that we will be forced to resort to military action. To prevent that outcome, America and European allies need to convince reluctant countries like Russia and China to support steps that will cripple the Iranian economy, and force the government to abandon its nuclear program. Russia's decision to forestall the nuclear fuel delivery is an opportunity for President Bush and allied leaders to rally the world against Iran's march towards a nuclear theocracy.
Stephen Parsley is a Cavalier Daily Associate Editor. He can be reached at sparsley@cavalierdaily.com.
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