A GROUP of conservative activists in California are working hard to rig the 2008 presidential election. Although their scheme is cloaked in non-partisan language, it would alter procedures for allocating California's 55 electoral votes in such a way that would make it extremely difficult for a Democrat to win the presidency in 2008.
The group, misleadingly named Californians for Equal Representation, is spearheading this initiative and currently working to gather the necessary signatures so that it can appear as a ballot initiative in California's June 2008 election. If California voters approve their initiative, California would dump its current winner-take-all system, in which the candidate that receives a majority of the vote in the state receives all of its electoral votes. Instead, the candidate who wins a majority in the state would receive two votes corresponding to the state's two senators, while the winning and losing candidate would receive one electoral vote for each of California's 53 congressional districts in which they gain a plurality.
Californians for Equal Representation has argued that this initiative would force presidential candidates to spend more time campaigning for votes in the usually solidly Democratic state. According to Republican strategist Allen Hoffenblum, "Despite the stated intentions of the leaders of Californians for Equal Representation, the initiative would be devastating for any Democratic presidential candidate.
Because California voters usually cast their 55 electoral votes for the Democratic candidate, and because gerrymandering guarantees that the Republican will carry at least 15-20 of California's congressional districts, the initiative would transfer a large number of electoral votes from the Democratic to the Republican presidential candidate.This net transfer of roughly 20 electoral votes would raise the bar on what Democrats must achieve in order to win the election. It would effectively mean that in order to win, Democratic candidates would have to carry an additional large state, such as Florida, or some combination of smaller states, over what is currently required.
According to Hoffenblum, "This would all but guarantee that the Republican nominee would get 20 extra electoral college votes, which could certainly impact the outcome of the election."
This proposal has the potential to do immense damage to American democracy.
It is easy to foresee a scenario in which A Democratic candidate would receive a solid majority of the popular vote, carry most of the crucial swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa, and still lose the election by 20 votes from otherwise solidly Democratic California. In such a scenario, the legitimacy of the presidential election would be obliterated by the outcries of voters who had their will subverted by machinations of sly conservative lawyers.
On a wider level, this initiative should serve to signal to the nation to the danger posed by partisan manipulation of the electoral college. At the very least Americans should be vigilant against reforms whose main purpose is to build a partisan advantage. Even better, Americans could move to forever eliminate the threat of manipulation of the electoral vote, by ditching it altogether.
Although efforts to pass a constitutional amendment to disband the electoral college have stalled, reform advocates are successfully persuading some state legislatures to allocate their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. If enough states were to sign on to such an initiative it would effectively neutralize the importance of the electoral college and make the winner of the popular vote the de facto winner of the election. While Maryland is currently the only state to allocate its electoral votes in this way, if others follow the Bay State's lead, the potential for manipulation of electoral college would be permanently neutralized.
The threat posed by this initiative is very real. Hopefully California voters will realize the potential of this threat and reject this proposal.
Adam Keith's column appears Tuesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at akeith@cavalierdaily.com.
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