As best-selling novelist John Grisham introduced Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton at her Charlottesville fundraiser Sunday, he exclaimed, "Everybody's coming to Charlottesville." He was referring not only to the New York senator's recent stop in the city, but also to the rumored Oct. 29 visit of another contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama. As the attention of national nominees turns toward Central Virginia, both Republicans and Democrats weigh in on why candidates may come to call in the City of Charlottesville and Albemarle County and whether Virginia will lean red or blue in 2008.
Hoos coming to town?
As she addressed a crowd at the Paramount Theater Sunday night, Clinton said her reasons for visiting Charlottesville include the special memories she has of visiting the area with her husband, particularly on the way to his first presidential inauguration in Washington.
"We talked a lot about what Bill wanted to do as president, and of course one of his favorite presidents was Jefferson," Clinton said. "And he wanted to start this journey to the inauguration at Monticello."
She also cited an education summit the couple attended at the University in 1999 as an experience she cherished.
While Clinton wrapped up her visit to the area, rumors are still circulating of a possible appearance from Obama to take place in Charlottesville Oct. 29. Talk of this visit began Sept. 9, when The Daily Progress reported that a member of Obama's finance committee sent an e-mail informing supporters that the senator would be traveling to the area.
To date, no venue has been announced and Fred Hudson, chair of the Albemarle County Democratic Party, said he could not absolutely confirm the stop will occur.
"The Oct. 29 event is very probable, but not absolutely guaranteed at this point," Hudson said. "They are trying very hard to make it happen."
He added the only reason Obama would not make it to Central Virginia would be scheduling, not because of "a lack of interest or desire to be here."
Cauline Yates, co-founder of the group Charlottesville for Obama, which is not specifically connected to Obama's campaign, explained she does not believe the senator will visit the area.
"We are just waiting like everybody else," Yates said. "But we have heard that he would not be coming."
When asked about the potential visit, a representative of the Obama campaign said he could not comment on appearances more than a week in the future.
Christian Schoenewald, vice chair of the Albemarle County Republicans, said he does not know of any Republican presidential contenders planning to visit the region.
Tipping toward the blue
While Obama's October visit has yet to be confirmed, some Democrats in Charlottesville say the attention national candidates are placing on Charlottesville and Albemarle County is evidence of an overall trend toward the left in Central Virginia and in the Commonwealth as a whole.
"Based on recent elections, it is becoming clear to the national political landscape that Central Virginia is increasingly Democratic, and it may be enough to push Virginia into the blue column for the first time since 1964," said David Slutsky, the Clinton campaign's point person for Central Virginia and member of the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors.
In her speech Sunday, Clinton agreed with the notion that Virginia is a state Democrats could win in 2008.
"I don't think people in Virginia are satisfied with the direction of our country," Clinton said.
She explained that although winning Virginia would be a reach for any Democratic presidential candidate, the success of Sen. James Webb and former Gov. Mark Warner -- who is running for a Senate seat in 2008 -- shows increased opportunity for a national Democratic candidate to win the Commonwealth.
"It could be that Virginia would be competitive, and I am not ceding any part of America," Clinton said.
It's all about the money
In the 2008 election cycle, 23 states will hold their primaries Feb. 5, which has been dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday". Virginia's primaries fall Feb. 12. With the large majority of states holding primaries before Virginia, many reject the notion that candidates would visit the Commonwealth for any reason other than fundraising.
"The Charlottesville area is not just deeply Democratic; it also has a lot of money, and so the candidates are raising so much cash that they have to reach out to every party stronghold," University Politics Prof. Larry Sabato said. "It's all about money; Virginia's primary is too late for any real impact."
Fred Hudson, Albemarle County Democratic Party chair, also acknowledged that candidates' visits to the area may be motivated by money.
"It is for fundraising," Hudson said. "What happens is that Charlottesville/Albemarle have consistently shown their generosity and support for Democratic candidates. This race is no different."
Slutsky said Clinton came to the region to make money, noting that she raised more than $200,000 Sunday. He also pointed out, however, that the senator has her eyes on more than just securing the primary.
"It is fairly likely that she will wrap things up on Super Duper Tuesday, but in case she doesn't, we are [one of the next primaries]," Slutsky said. "Even though Virginia isn't going to be front and center in the primary stage, it clearly holds promise for a Democratic candidate in the general election. Yeah, they can pick up money but their main focus is to stir up a democratic tendency in Virginia."
Welcome by Republicans?
Area Republicans reject the notion that the Virginia is on the way to becoming a permanent Democratic stronghold.
"The situation is about population ebb and flow," Schoenewald said. "We have been going through an increase in Democrats right now. Virginia has fundamentally been a conservative state for a long time. I have no doubt that it will trend that way in the future."
Schoenewald added that he personally is glad Democratic presidential contenders are making early campaign stops in Virginia.
"With the high-profile Democrats coming to town now, taking money out of the county that could be used for local candidates, it gives local Democrats less resources to work for their local elections," he said. "Republicans have held off. It shows good sense."
College Republicans Chair Robert Martin said although Virginia may appear to be an opportunity for Democratic candidates to pick up a traditionally red state, a win in the Commonwealth depends on the quality of the politicians, rather than the political trends of the Commonwealth.
"Virginia is a tempered political climate," Martin said. "It is not really a red or blue state. It is a purple state. I think they see that there is a chance. They can pull an election upset in Virginia. What is going to matter is what side puts up the better candidates"
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