The first sign of a tsunami is often a calm, shallow shore line.
Though Cavalier fans might have the placid sense of security associated with a 6-1 record, Virginia is about to be hit by a wave of devastation.
The first sign, though noticeable, was of no great calamity. Against Middle Tennessee, Virginia lost its tailback, junior Cedric Peerman. At first, his loss caused no big waves. Freshman Keith Payne and junior Andrew Pearman were up to task, filling in with a combined 115 yards on the day. They mostly ran the same routes, and the run opened up the field just enough for Jameel Sewell to throw the ball about two yards each time he went to the air. Virginia got the W and everyone slept sound.
Saturday's contest against Connecticut hinted further at what was to come for Virginia.
Success on offense was rare. Payne ran the ball for 42 yards, Pearman for 40. The weak running game kept Virginia from dominating in the air, as Sewell completed 14 of 24 pass attempts for a meager 149 yards and two interceptions.
With no go-to guy on Virginia's offense, the best option proved to be Sewell's feet. He carried the ball 16 times for 66 yards. The 16 rush attempts match his career high attained against Florida State last season.
It's worth noting that Virginia rushed for 58 yards and didn't score a point against FSU. Sewell even threw two interceptions then, too.
That's what the loss of Peerman can do to a team like Virginia. Without a strong running game, defenses eat up Virginia's passing game, leaving the Wahoos nearly optionless -- which is why Peter Lalich, who can't scramble, doesn't get playing time anymore.
Is a tsunami washing Virginia from ACC Championship contention imminent? No one can say for sure. But with Maryland, Miami and Virginia Tech all looming ahead, to say Virginia needs to improve to win another game would be a gross understatement.
"It's been a 19-game process," Groh said of the development Virginia has made since last season. "It's been developing the personality and the caliber of this team the whole way through. They never listened to the information they were getting from the outside."
Well, if they're not getting motivation from me, I hope they're getting it from someone. The players were pretty happy with themselves Saturday. They didn't come out of the locker room with the mentality that things need to improve.
Maybe they were enjoying the victory, right? Maybe they knew they had business to attend to later in the week.
If history tells us anything, Virginia only learns by experience. Like the experience of a 23-3 loss to Wyoming. Or a 7-5 loss to North Carolina, one week after knocking off Florida State.
Virginia football is all about the journey. The hackneyed story of rising up from the depths of despair to claim a historic victory seems to pervade any notion of success in the program's recent history -- like the 2002 season Virginia started 0-2, but finished 9-5, upsetting No. 15 West Virginia in the Continental Tire Bowl.
Sometimes Virginia doesn't even make it out of the despair -- like in 2004, when Virginia started 5-0, but lost to Florida State 36-3 and finished the season 8-4 with an embarrassing overtime loss to Fresno State in the MPC Computers Bowl.
Is it so difficult to know what work needs to be done to avoid those unexpected losses?
Despite the 6-1 record, Virginia needs to be humble. The less-than rigorous schedule, the turnovers and the close wins all need to be examined. And when Groh pulls off a victory like he did this weekend, he needs to credit his offense for pulling it together, but be wary of the mistakes and the weaknesses Virginia had for the first 3.5 quarters.
Apparently, that's not how football works in Charlottesville.
The coach and his team look at the game and say things like "No matter what happens, we're going to pull it out; however it looks, however terrible the win is, we're going to get a win," like Sewell did Saturday.
But to look forward to Maryland and say your strategy is to "find a way to win" is simply reckless. Luck didn't cause Virginia to win the game, but neither did Sewell's two interceptions, Vic Hall's fumble or the penalties that sent Connecticut soaring down the field in the fourth quarter.
Virginia's No. 19 BCS and No. 24 USA Today Coaches Poll rankings will put Wahoo fans in a tailspin.
And now people will look at our rankings; they will hear what Groh said about the team never giving up; and fans will get on the bandwagon.
Please. For your own sake, don't buy the hype. Spare yourself from the possibility of a washout.
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