KOSOVO'S declaration of independence last Sunday setoff a cascade of congratulations, denunciations and general confusion. Among the nations opposing the new republic's independence, none has been more vociferous, or more of a nuisance, than Russia. Russia's policy towards Kosovo has been couched in banal and non-polemical terms about the preservation of nationhood, but what the Russians really want to prove -- nearly two decades after the end of the Cold War -- is that they are still a relevant force in Eastern European affairs. Their misguided notions about the region and their unreasonable assessment of their influence in it could be a barrier for future progress and development; Russia needs to forget 1945 and open its eyes to 2008.
After the turmoil of the Cold War and the Yeltsin years, Russians began looking for a sense of stability that might reconcile a world riddled with breakaway republics, rebellions, poverty and corruption. They found that hope for sociopolitical order in Vladimir Putin, a twenty-first century Tsar, who tightened his grip on the state by, among other things, cracking down on the media and crippling opposing political parties. Russia under Putin has experienced enormous levels of prosperity, relatively speaking, and has regained a certain confidence unseen in decades. When powerful regimes start doing well at home, the next logical step is often to find something to quibble about abroad.
Kosovo has become that 'something' for Russia and so much more. For the Russians, Kosovo is now akin to a Rorschach test about their influence and legacy in Eastern Europe, an area they dominated for much of the twentieth century. They cannot possibly let this one slide and succumb to Western encroachment, as they see it. Publicly, Russia talks about Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- pro-Russian territories currently held by others that also want independence or unification with Russia -- all the time to justify its policy on Kosovo, but in reality they're just looking to blunt Western influence. If they give in to America and Western Europe now, in what other issue in Eastern Europe will the latter two involve themselves, to Russia's deepening chagrin? If Russia can establish a successful precedent with Kosovo by thwarting European-American efforts to construct an independent republic in the heart of the Balkans, they can claim a major diplomatic coup in the battle for the soul of Eastern Europe.
Yet the dichotomy that exists in the minds of people like Putin -- that it's Russia and its former bloc versus the West -- has totally crumbled. As of the writing of this column, several nations throughout Eastern Europe have recognized or will recognize the independence of Kosovo, among them Croatia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Those lining up behind Russia, like Belarus or Kazakhstan, are either in the minority or are not in Europe. In fact, Russia's position on Kosovo seems to be resonating more in Asia -- among regimes with their own internal problems, like China and Sri Lanka -- than anywhere else.
Eastern Europe has moved on from the Russian specter, but Russia itself, at least for the foreseeable future, will do everything in its power to cling on to any remaining iota and any remaining vestige of its former authority in that region, even if that means sabotaging Kosovo's independence under the guise of national sovereignty or international diplomacy. Kosovo will have to be the latest nation to suffer from the Russian will and that equally vaunted Russian recalcitrance. But unlike so many other victims in the past, Kosovo will not go through this alone.
The Russian yoke has now been skewered by the likes of the United States, France, Britain, Germany and Italy, all of whom have recognized Kosovo's independence, and all of whom deserve to be -- and now are -- the real driving force in the development of Eastern Europe. The sooner Russia realizes this new reality, the sooner Eastern European countries can move on from a torturous past and welcome a new future in NATO and the European Union.
Erald Kolasi's column appears Monday in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at ekolasi@cavalierdaily.com.
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