Around this time of year, many people may be asking, "How exactly are the Oscar awards determined?" Sure, people like to talk about some Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences with a select and secret voting membership of about 6,000. Whatever. I like to think it's decided by "The Man." You know, the same old white guy that lives in a subterranean lair, sets oil prices and instructs Britney Spears to have meltdowns when the general public needs distracting. So the question for the Oscar predictor is this: What is The Man thinking? With that in mind, here are my 2008 predictions.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: It's almost silly calling it "supporting" because Javier Bardem was the real on-screen centerpiece of No Country for Old Men. Regardless, this one is an absolute lock. If Bardem loses I'll streak the Lawn.
Who should win: Bardem deserves it. Although I wouldn't mind seeing Clayton's Tom Wilkinson win -- if only for the fact he believably delivered the line "I am Shiva, god of death."
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Predicting this one is kind of a mess, as the SAG award went to Ruby Dee (American Gangster). I still think The Man will probably go for Kate Blanchett's gender-bending Bob Dylan (I'm Not There). The Man is just into that kind of thing.
Who Should win: As much as I enjoy hating on Ben Affleck (Daredevil ...), his directorial debut Gone Baby Gone was excellent and largely overlooked. I'd like to see Amy Ryan take this one. The performance was amazing, and Gone deserves some Oscar love.
Best Actor
Who will win: Both the "Actor" Oscars are locks this year. There will be Daniel Day-Lewis. He will drink your milkshake. He will win this Oscar.
Who should win: I'm often publicly stoned for saying this, but if Lewis chewed the scenery any harder his teeth would crack. Ryan Gosling isn't even nominated, but his doll-loving turn in Lars and the Real Girl is where the gold man should have been headed this year.
Best Actress
Who will win: The men may be locks, but the ladies are all up in the air. Julian Christie (Away from Her) and Marion Cotillard (Le Vie En Rose) both took Golden Globes this year. Christie coming out of retirement to play a mentally handicapped woman, however, conforms too perfectly to The Academy's, er, The Man's tastes. Christie for the win.
Who should win: As cute as Ellen Paige (Juno) may be, Marion Cotillard plays one heck of an alcoholic. Cotillard should win, and there's a semi-decent chance she will.
Best Director
Who will win: With their Directors' Guild win and No Country up for eight nominations, the Coen brothers winning here is all but a certainty.
Who should win: There Will Be Blood was arguably a more starkly impressive cinematic vision, but the Coens deserve this one.
Best Picture
Who will win: Not a total lock, but No Country for Old Men losing here would be very surprising. Still, There Will Be Blood, with its similar dark western motifs, could confuse The Man and cause him to do something drastic (also known as splitting the dark Western vote and leaving room for an upset, like Juno).
Who should win: On a side note, I think the campy hipster-fest that is Juno stands as the most overrated film of the year. That being said I haven't seen a better film this year than No Country for Old Men. The Man and I will most likely be in agreement here.
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