With just a few days until the election, the 18- to 24-year-old demographic has the potential to make its most significant impact in the history of presidential elections. But how much young voters will be able to “rock the vote” remains uncertain.
Election excitement has greatly increased since the 2004 presidential election, said Bruce Vlk, deputy director of programs at the Center for Politics. Looking on Grounds, one can feel that energy, he said. Progressive Future, a non-partisan organization whose goal is to increase youth voter turnout, recently has stationed volunteers by the South Lawn and Alderman Library to convince students to vote. The organization, with its 75 on-Grounds volunteers, asks students to “pledge to vote” by signing a pledge saying that they promise to vote. Progressive Future has volunteers in 16 other college campuses in swing states across the nation, said Dave Ebner, a Progressive Future volunteer at the University.
Youth voting is a critical “untapped resource” that candidates are slowly beginning to recognize, Ebner said.
Progressive Future also hosts events such as its “All Night for Democracy,” during which volunteers will stay up 24 hours beginning Monday calling students and reminding them to vote, Ebner said.
“The youth vote should turn out record numbers,” Ebner said. “Voting is kind of like your first in. Hopefully, we’re building people that are activists in the future.”
Vlk said while he expects the young voter demographic turnout to increase, people should be wary of over-hyping and exaggerating the youth vote.
“A lot of cynicism still persists about the youth turnout,” he said.
Assoc. Politics Prof. Paul Freedman, though, said “We expect that young people will make a big mark on the election.”
A recent poll conducted by CBS News, UWire and The Chronicle of Higher Education suggested that most students have not shown enthusiasm for political activities other than saying they plan to vote. The poll was conducted at 49 four-year colleges and universities in the battleground states of Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. About 51 percent of registered voters who were surveyed said they were paying “a lot” of attention to the presidential campaign, in contrast to the 65 percent of all adult registered voters who said they were following the presidential campaign closely in the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll. About 34 percent said they had displayed a campaign sign or worn campaign-related clothing or a button, though fewer than 13 percent had volunteered for a campaign.
Whether they choose to vote or volunteer, young voters are part of the reason that Virginia has gained its swing-state status this year, Politics graduate student Drew Kurlowski said.
Kurlowski, who studied youth voting in 2004, found that youth voting did not significantly impact the 2004 election. In 2004, voters between the ages of 18 and 24 had the lowest turnout of any age group. Not only did their low turnout affect their minimal impact, but they were closely split between John Kerry and George W. Bush, Kurlowski said.
This year, however, the Democratic advantage has nearly doubled from 13 percent in 2004 to 24 percent, Kurlowski said.
“They definitely look more Democratic than anything this year,” he said. “And they definitely have the potential to have the largest impact than any other election.”
But just because the young look Democratic does not necessarily mean they are becoming more Democratic than Republican.
“Do we see youth actually becoming more Democratic, or is it just because the Democratic Party is reaching out to youth better than the Republican [Party]?” Kurlowski asked.
He also cautioned that simply because the Barack Obama camp has registered many young voters, registration does not necessarily translate into votes. He questioned whether 18- to 24-year olds will actually be willing to go to the polls Nov. 4 and cast their ballots.
“Every year we’re saying the same thing, ‘This is going to be the year for youth,’” Kurlowski said. “We’re a small demographic that rarely votes. And yes, we can have an impact on the election, but I don’t think we’re going to be a deciding factor on the election.”
Kurlowski noted that he believes one demographic is not responsible for swinging elections one way or another.
“It’s not a good thing to say that one group, race or interest group is going to swing the election,” Kurlowski said. “They’re not going to control the election. But they’re a general blueing of the entire country. But will they show up to vote? Who knows.”
Peter Levine, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement director at Tufts University, said he believes that Obama will not be able to capture a swing state such as Virginia without the youth vote, though. What makes the youth critical is that young people are a rather large demographic and are leaning heavily toward one candidate, he said.
“If young voters represent one in five voters and you’re leading by two to one among them, then I don’t think you could afford to lose that group without losing the election,” Levine said.
Even if Virginia remains red, Ebner said, he believes his organization’s efforts will still get politicians to pay closer attention to younger voters. He cited Colorado as an example: Although it was a key battleground state in 2004, it ended up voting in favor of the Republican Party as it had in previous elections. Nevertheless, because of the close margin of victory in 2004, Colorado has remained a key state to which politicians are still devoting attention, Ebner said.
While there is little question that young voters will have some impact come Nov. 4, the degree of that involvement remains to be seen.
“This election will be very telling [about whether] it will have an impact in the future,” Vlk said.
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