NATURALLY, just about every sane person in this country is sick of politics and elections. After all, we've endured presidential campaigning for nearly two years now, and although this was undoubtedly a historic election, most people are ready for the electioneering to be over and the real work of governing to begin.
While this is a more than understandable sentiment, things are a little bit different here in Virginia. Since we run statewide elections in off years, citizens of the commonwealth will endure a governor's race in 2009, not to mention races for attorney general and lieutenant governor as well. With most of the 2008 election's punditry behind us, it'll be most interesting to see how this year's shifting electoral map influences our state's politics in the not-so-distant future. Both major parties will need to recognize and adapt to these changing patterns if they want to remain competitive in the commonwealth.
The dominant feature of Virginia's Decision '08 was, of course, Barack Obama being the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry our state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. President-elect Obama is only the second Democrat to do so since the 1948 election of Harry Truman. When we reach back this far in history, mind you, we run into the issue of realignment of the state and national political parties. Remember, the Solid South that dominated southern politics for several generations after the Civil War was comprised of conservative Democrats, not Republicans.
The New Deal is really the straw that broke the camel's back. It established the national Democratic Party as one of more expansive government, and secured the support of most labor unions, working-class voters, and racial, ethnic, and religious minorities. It took the state parties a little while to catch up, but eventually they shifted to fit in with their national counterparts.
What this means is that Obama winning Virginia might even be more significant than the statistics suggest. While Democrats often carried the state earlier this century, Obama is arguably one of only a handful of truly liberal-leaning candidates ever to do so. Johnson pulled it off on the heels of John F. Kennedy's tragic assassination. He crushed Barry Goldwater 486-52 in the Electoral College, while ringing up the biggest popular vote percentage since 1820. Truman might be put in this category, but his election is also something of an anomaly: He came from behind in dramatic fashion to win, and benefited greatly from the lingering FDR coalition. And Roosevelt himself, of course, was essentially a national hero when he put Virginia in the Democratic column four times from 1932 to 1944.
There is another way to view these numbers, though. Each time Virginia has thrown its electoral votes behind a non-conservative Democrat, that candidate has won the White House handily - with over 300 electoral votes every time, and often substantially more than that. This could mean Virginia isn't turning into the progressive, latte-drinking state conservatives fear. It might just mean we vote blue when everyone else does, i.e. when the Democratic candidate is much stronger than the Republican one.
Countering that argument are the commonwealth's two Democratic senators and Democratic governor. That certainly suggests at least some degree of change in voting patterns. Still, circumstances broke to the GOP's disadvantage in each race. Jim Webb won largely because of a belittling racial epithet by the incumbent George Allen. Mark Warner was simply a more recent, successful and popular governor than was Jim Gilmore, which contributed both to his easily taking that senate seat and to Tim Kaine's election as his gubernatorial successor.
This recent political history is important for Virginia's high office seekers in 2009. The general lesson to take away is this: This is no longer a solidly red state, and left-of-center candidates can be more than competitive here. However, if Democrats think Virginians will start rubber stamping liberal candidates, they are profoundly mistaken. Not even explosive growth rates across Northern Virginia will keep Republicans down and out for the long haul. Democrats still must seek to follow a Warner-like strategy, which involves making appeals to blue-collar rural voters in addition to city folk.
I'd say the advantage for next year's gubernatorial race has to initially lie with GOP candidate Bob McDonnell for several reasons. Most important, he'll be the only statewide elected official on the ballot. Second, he's already beaten likely Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds once, albeit by a razor thin margin, in the 2005 attorney general's race. Another possible challenger, Del. Brian Moran (D-Alexandria), doesn't have name recognition outside of Northern Virginia.
Whichever way you lean, it's refreshing to see Virginia become a truly competitive state. It might even make our two parties a bit more responsive to the people they represent. After all, a little competition never hurt anybody.
Ross Lawrence is a Cavalier Daily Associate Editor. He can be reached at r.lawrence@cavalierdaily.com.
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