The Crystal Ball, an election predictor run by Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato and the University’s Center for Politics, achieved near perfect accuracy in its predictions of 2008 election results for the federal government.
The Web site’s predictions were 98.4 percent accurate when compared to media projections for the House of Representatives and 100 percent accurate for the electoral college, gubernatorial races and Senate races.
Dan Keyserling, Center for Politics deputy director of communications and former Cavalier Daily executive editor, said the team behind the Crystal Ball’s predictions has no scientific formula for predicting election results; the predictions are made through a combination of research, individual knowledge and experience.
“We spend the weeks and months preceding the election looking at polls, looking at financial information, talking to people on the ground ... and in the end we get together [to talk] about it,” Keyserling said.
Keyserling also noted that the Crystal Ball manages to maintain accuracy while following a policy of not declaring any races “too close to call.”
This process of “pre-election betting,” Keyserling said, has a factor of luck in it that changes from election to election. He emphasized that the Center for Politics does not have a superior method to any other organization but that it benefits greatly from the talent and experience of its team.
“Each of us [has] sort of unique life experiences and work experiences that help us judge this a little differently,” Keyserling said.
—compiled by Prateek Vasireddy
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