Why does it rain some days, while the sun shines on other days? Why is it usually cold in January, but sometimes a day creeps in that feels more like spring than winter? Why is it so humid in the East but not the West? Questions like these, which fourth-year College student Mallie Toth and 2008 College alumna Christy Dallavalle have been asking themselves since childhood, led the pair to head up the Cavalier Weather Service, a club in which students forecast Charlottesville’s weather for The Cavalier Daily and the radio station WTJU.
Both Toth and Dallavalle originally learned about the club through EVSC 493, “Weather Forecasting.” Toth said students in the atmospheric science concentration of the environmental science department created the Cavalier Weather Service a few years ago. When the founders graduated, students concentrating in geology and ecology took over.
Toth, who is concentrating in atmospheric science, said when she approached the leaders of the club with an interest to take over, they were glad to hand the reins to someone genuinely interested in forecasting.
“They were like, ‘It was fun, this is cool, but you’re really interested in it, so take over,’” she said.
When Toth became president, the club was comprised of members of the Weather Forecasting class. They would meet either in class or shortly before or after to deliberate over radar, maps and charts to create the forecast for the next few days.
Dallavalle was also in the class that semester and became vice president of the club. She said the members derived their forecasts from a group of models consolidated by Pennsylvania State University. Each model helps student forecasters infer different types of data, such as temperature and chance of precipitation.
Both said predicting the weather in Charlottesville is a bit tricky because of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A phenomenon known as cold air damming, which Dallavalle explained as cold air trapped up against the mountains, is somewhat common in the area. This causes unseasonably cool days in both the summer and winter. Dallavalle added that cold air damming is also the culprit behind many of the major ice storms Charlottesville has endured over the years.
The mountains also complicate predictions of how much precipitation Charlottesville will receive. When storms are headed for Charlottesville, Dallavalle said they tend to get broken up while crossing the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mountains. The result is that Charlottesville misses the precipitation, and the storms reform over Louisa.
After the Weather Forecasting class ended, the Cavalier Weather Service became essentially a two-woman operation, shared by Toth and Dallavalle. They switched off predicting days and kept in close contact about interesting patterns each found in the models.
For two self-proclaimed weather addicts since childhood, the work was enjoyable.
“I’ve liked the weather since I was really young,” Dallavalle said. “My neighbor was into weather too, and we would watch the Weather Channel for fun. We were such nerds.”
Because of a parent in the military, Toth had the opportunity to live in a variety of climates when she was younger. She lived in the North during the “storm of the century” of 1993, spent three years near Tornado Alley while living in Texas and lived in both Tampa, Fla. and in southern Alabama, where she witnessed strong storms on a regular basis.
Toth’s interest in the weather did not wane. She transferred to the University from Mary Washington University because the University offers the only atmospheric science program in the commonwealth. Even so, she said the University’s program still is not approved according to National Weather Service standards because it is missing certain classes.
Toth said she plans to work hard to expand the Cavalier Weather Service and recruit more members. Dallavalle, who still lives in Charlottesville, helps Toth by forecasting when Toth cannot.
Toth also said she is in the process of getting space on the University server to start a Web site for the club that would provide Charlottesville forecasts, radar and maps to the University community directly.
“Most colleges who have atmospheric science programs or have weather services” have their own Web sites, she said. “We’d really like to get started, but before we can get the Web site up there and update-able, we need to have a bigger group of interested people.”
Weather Forecasting is usually only offered in the fall, so Toth has been in contact with students from last semester’s class and said she has found some interest there. As for students who do not have a background in the atmosphere or weather forecasting, Toth said they are welcome to join the club and observe the forecasting. In order to actually forecast, however, Toth said students should have some relevant coursework to ensure accuracy.
Even though the club’s main focus is forecasting the weather, last year it participated in other community events as well. Dallavalle said the members participated in a science convention on the Downtown Mall for school-age children, teaching participants about the weather and answering their questions.
Dallavalle said the everyday role the weather plays in people’s lives is part of the subject’s appeal.
“It’s so interesting to me because it affects every one of us every day, so it’s something I’ve always wanted to understand better,” she said.
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