With the June 9 primary to decide its nominee not too far away, the Democratic Party of Virginia has an extremely close fight on its hands for the party’s gubernatorial candidacy. The party has three strong individuals in the race in the form of former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe, former head of the House Democratic Caucus Brian Moran, and state Senator Creigh Deeds. While the current race is beginning to show signs of ugliness and party disunity, precedential evidence shows that Virginia Democrats should be happy to have a highly contested primary race.
Think back to the early months of 2008 when Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were duking it out for their party’s nomination. The result of that battle was the longest nomination battle in modern American political history, an era begun by the rule changes of the McGovern-Fraser Commission in the aftermath of the 1968 election that led to the proliferation of primaries. Tempers flared throughout the six months the struggle lasted with groups like the Clintonite PUMAs promising they would not vote for Obama if he won the nomination. During the summer following Clinton’s suspension of her campaign it looked like those individuals really might not vote for Obama. However, by the time the general election race reached the fall, those people had warmed to voting for the Democratic candidate, even if he was not named Hillary. The rest is history.
Much like that race, the Virginia Democratic primary is shaping up to be an incredibly close one. While McAuliffe is raising a substantial amount of money, the hold Moran has over much of the northern Virginia Democrats (the strongest part of the state for the party aside from Richmond) and Deeds’ ability to win in all corners of the state has left the race as essentially a toss-up. Whoever wins the primary will probably do so with a plurality, not a majority, as each candidate could win at least 30 percent. As exhibited by the heightening discord in the online community between the different camps, the nomination battle has a very good chance of getting ugly in the last two months before the primary. This scares many party insiders, who fear that the party will not be able to recover from a rough nomination fight to beat former Attorney General Bob McDonnell in November.
Yet if this primary race is anything like the presidential one, it will only strengthen the party for the November election. Getting turnout in state elections in Virginia is incredibly vital due to the fact that they are always in an off-year from national ones, meaning turnout can fall below the 50 percent mark. A great way of ensuring that Democrats remain interested in their race is by having such a competitive primary that gets people involved in their respective candidate’s campaign. Though some would argue this creates divisions between various camps within the party, if the Hillary-Obama race is any indicator, these partitions will be overcome by the time November rolls around as the eventual candidate will have five months to unify the party’s segments. Moreover, much like in the 2008 Democratic primary, the candidates are not so far apart on the issues that bitter partisans from one camp will refuse to vote for another candidate in the field if their person fails to win the primary. McAuliffe, Moran, and Deeds have similar goals on transportation, creating green jobs, and drastically improving education; it’s not like one is a conservative Democrat, one a part of the center-left, and one a hard left-winger. All are different shades of gray within a fairly progressive spectrum. None of the candidates will be so anathematic to any other’s supporters that they would be angry enough to ponder not voting at all or even consider voting for the staunch conservative Bob McDonnell, leaving the party strong for the fight to retain the governorship.
Virginia Democrats should be thankful to have such a strong group of candidates because in the course of this heated primary the three men trying to gain the party’s nomination will only become stronger candidates. Whoever wins will better handle the attacks from the right that are sure to come from the McDonnell camp en route to the November election. For the Republicans, the easy path for McDonnell may make fundraising simple but could hurt him as no one critiques his record until deeper into the campaign, a resume that is pretty conservative in a state that has been slowly turning a healthier, bluer shade of purple over the last four years. With history running against them, as no member of the presiding president’s party has won the Virginia’s governorship since 1973, a tough primary for the Democrats is just what the doctor ordered.
Geoff Skelley’s column appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at g.skelley@cavalierdaily.com.
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