I didn't want to talk about Virginia football today. It's a tired story. Three games, three losses. What more is there to say?
Well, unfortunately, there is a lot more to say, even if you only talk about this weekend's collapse at Southern Miss. Like, Virginia led 34-17 with only 22 minutes left in the game, then gave up 20 unanswered points and lost. Or, the Cavaliers couldn't do anything in the fourth quarter on offense, but Southern Miss scored two touchdowns on drives of 53 and 68 yards. And, Jameel Sewell had the game of his life - 312 passing yards, two TD passes, and 2 TD runs - but the rest of the running corps combined for 55 rushing yards on 20 carries.
In the grand scheme of things, though, Virginia's problems run much deeper than its late-game ineptitude against Southern Miss. They go beyond the spread offense's inability to move the ball on the ground. The Cavaliers' problems start at the top, with coach Al Groh. In the words of many, Groh must go. The question is not if he should lose his job, but when.
I don't know how anybody can argue that Groh is worth keeping around. For players and former players, it's a sensitive issue: Groh is their coach, and they feel an attachment to him. But to outsiders, including fans and journalists, the case is pretty clear. Virginia is 0-3 this year, including a home loss to an FCS team and a road loss after being up 17 at the half. Last year, Virginia's 5-7 record included a 35-point loss at Connecticut, a 28-point loss at Duke and a four-game losing streak to end the season. The Cavaliers haven't won a game since Oct. 25, 2008.
Virginia hasn't won a bowl game since 2005 and hasn't beaten Virginia Tech since 2003. Since his first season at Virginia in 2001, Groh's teams are 1-7 against Tech. If there are any benchmarks that usually allow coaches on the hot seat to keep their jobs, they are bowl wins and rivalry game wins. Groh's track record in both regards is not good.
Although Groh has had five winning seasons in eight years at Virginia, four of those were from 2002-05. This year is set to be his second losing campaign in a row and third in the past four years. I don't think many coaches get more leash than that. Going into this year, Groh's record at Virginia was 56-44; fortunately for him, even a winless season this year will keep his record at .500.
So, yes, this should be Groh's last year in Charlottesville. But, I believe Virginia needs to wait until after the season to can its coach. I simply don't think it would do this team any good to fire him now and I don't think there is anyone better out there to take the team for the rest of 2009. You can't promote from within - offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon has not shown any reason to be given the reins, and Groh is the defensive coordinator. Special teams coach Ron Prince is the likeliest to get a promotion if Groh is fired midyear - as he has head coaching experience from his days at Kansas State - but I think Virginia needs to have a longer term plan in mind.
That plan starts with a phone call to the 804, to Richmond coach and former Virginia defensive coordinator, Mike London.
"Hey, Mike, how are things at Richmond? I mean, I know you went 13-3 and won the FCS championship during your first year there and you're already 3-0 this year, including a win against Duke. I know you played at Richmond, you're a hero there, and you just got a two-year extension through 2014. But, hey, you wanna come back"
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