Last Tuesday, Americans all over the country held their breath as Virginians went to the polls to elect their next governor. In the eyes of many, this would serve as the first official assessment of President Barack Obama's time in office thus far. When the results were called in favor of Republican Bob McDonnell shortly after polls closed, Republicans throughout the commonwealth and the country reveled in their seventeen-point massacre of the Democratic Party. The most vocal hailed it as the resurgence of the right and evidence that Republicans would take back Congress in 2010 and the White House in 2012. In reality, however, the only things that Virginia voters demonstrated with any intensity last week were apathy and tradition.
The first powerful message that Virginia voters sent to the nation was that they didn't really care. According to Professor Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "one result of absentee Democrats was the lowest voter turnout for a gubernatorial election in the state's modern two-party history (1969 to 2009). The 2009 turnout of 39.8 percent of the registered voters was the lowest in forty years." Just over half of the people who voted in last year's presidential election showed up for seconds this year. Most notably missing from the polling places were independents and the young, the foundation of Obama's winning coalition in 2008. "Students simply did not seem to want to vote or take the time out of their day to vote this year," said Lena Witek, Development Coordinator for the University Democrats. "It didn't seem as important to them." This is probably due to a number of factors, chief among them the fact that neither candidate was really anything to get excited about. Other students admit to not even knowing there was an election this year. When you take into consideration the smaller, whiter, and older electorate, the results seem less likely to be able to speak to the nation's feelings on Obama's presidency.
On top of being largely ignored, this election was thoroughly predictable. While Virginia has been trending blue since 2005, this pattern must be examined in the greater scheme of the commonwealth's history.
It is true that in the past four years, Virginia has evolved from a conservative stronghold to a critical swing state. In 2005, it led the nation in rejecting the policies of the Republican Party by selecting a pleasantly moderate Democrat, current Governor Tim Kaine, in a six-point upset. One year later, Democrats did it again when they unseated presidential hopeful and Republican George Allen and replaced him with former Republican Jim Webb in the U.S. Senate. This race, one of the last midterm congressional elections to be called, would ultimately determine the balance of power in the Senate. At this point, the good old commonwealth had gotten quite comfortable in the limelight and was by no means ready to let it go. Basically, it was the new kid in town (of critical swing states) with all the shiny new toys (13 electoral votes) that everyone (presidential candidates) wanted to be friends with. Throughout 2007 it was courted by Republicans and Democrats alike, and in November, Democrats secured a resounding victory in the Virginia General Assembly. Coming into 2008 with a Democratic governor, state Senate, and junior U.S. Senator, and the promise of its popular Republican U.S. Senator on the way out, it looked as if the stars had realigned.
And realign they did. In the election of 2008, Virginia once again got to play cleanup hitter for the Democrats. Depending on what channel you were watching, it was Virginia that elected Obama president. This incredibly historic moment took on particular significance in a state that hadn't selected a Democrat for president since they were the party of the South forty-four years before. Fifty years before, the same state had decided in the form of its massive resistance movement that educating black and white students separately was more important than educating any students. In just four years, Virginia had gone from a reliable red to a bright blue.
That is why many consider the Republicans' sweep of all three statewide offices to have brought this trend to an abrupt halt. In reality, these results just reinforce a long standing Virginia tradition of moderating the results of the previous year's presidential election. Virginia is one of two states to hold gubernatorial elections the year after presidential elections. Ever the drama queen, it cherishes this status by taming the political sentiments of the nation at large, no matter what side they are on. In fact, each of the past nine presidential elections has been followed the next year by a Virginia gubernatorial election in which voters selected the opposite party that was elected the previous year, starting with Republican John Dalton following President Jimmy Carter back in 1977.
Cast in this light, last week's results can be interpreted as merely taking their rightful place in history. Once again, levelheaded Virginia used its unique position to swoop in and temper the decision of the previous year's emotionally-charged electorate. One year later, it can step back and look at the political climate with rationality.
The people who voted last week, not even 2 million strong, are hardly an indicator of public opinion on the president's policies. They do not represent a cross-section of America or even a cross-section of Virginia for that matter. The only conclusion that pundits can confidently draw from last Tuesday's election is that Virginia cares about tempering national sentiment - but not even that much.
Emily Kuhbach's column appears Wednesdays in The Cavalier Daily. She can be reached at e.kuhbach@cavalierdaily.com.
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