The race for Virginia's fifth district's congressional seat has begun, and early poll results released by Public Policy Polling last week suggest that Robert Hurt leads the seven Republican candidates. The poll's results reveal upcoming months before the election may be tough for incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello in the battle to keep his seat.
According to the poll, in a scenario in which voters had to choose between Perriello and Hurt, the two candidates tied, both receiving 44 percent of the surveyed votes. Compared to his fellow Republican candidates, Hurt performed the best against Perriello.
Against Michael McPadden, Perriello received 45 percent of the vote and McPadden received 36 percent. When paired against Laurence Verga, Perriello received 44 percent of the voters' favor and Verga received 34 percent. And when Perriello's name appeared on the same ticket as Jim McKleivley, Perriello won with 45 percent of the votes compared to McKleivley's 37 percent.
Despite the poll's findings, Hurt has yet to be officially nominated as the Republican candidate. Nevertheless, Hurt's campaign hopes to build support during the upcoming months.
"We're building a very strong team and we are humbled by the level of support that we've gotten from people all across the fifth district, and we are going to continue building on that grassroots team," Hurt campaign manager Sean Harrison said.
Perriello's campaign also remains optimistic in light of the polls findings.
"Congressman Perriello has fought tirelessly for working families by supporting economic development and job creation, investments in infrastructure and education and bringing down health care costs for the middle class and small businesses. People in the fifth district recognize his hard work and that's why he's heading into this election season in such a strong position," Perriello spokesperson Jessica Barba said in an e-mail.
Observers of the race are reluctant to name a frontrunner in the battle for the fifth district's congressional seat.
"Campaigns do matter, and candidates do matter, and so the Republican Party has to make sure that they nominate a strong candidate who can really put together a good campaign," said Isaac Wood, assistant communications director at the University's Center for Politics and a former Cavalier Daily opinion columnist.
The race could become even more unpredictable if former fifth district congressman Virgil Goode, who Perriello defeated in 2008, decides to enter the race.
When asked to vote for either Goode, Perriello or Hurt, 41 percent of respondents gave their votes to Goode, 41 percent to Perriello and only 12 percent to Hurt. Goode also received a greater approval rating than Perriello, according to the poll, 58 to 42 percent.
At the present time, Goode has yet to announce plans to run against Perriello. Public Policy Polling Director Tom Jensen, however, predicts he will run in the Republican primary election.
When contacted, Goode said he still does not intend to run against Perriello.
"My statement is the same at the one I made in July," Goode said.
Voter issues may be the deciding factor in a race that is currently hard to predict, and the economy remains one of the most important focus points for candidates.
"The state of the economy could shift the vote and an improvement would give the Democrats the favor," Jensen said. "The recent election in Massachusetts is evidence that the Democrats are losing ground."
Currently, parts of the fifth district, particularly the South Side, are experiencing high rates of unemployment, Wood said, adding that unemployment will weigh heavily on voters minds this fall.\nThe ongoing health care debate could be a significant factor, as well.
Some fifth district voters are particularly critical of Perriello's support for President Barack Obama's health care reforms, which are not popular in the conservative district, Wood said.
Even with the nation's current political climate, though, Wood is unsure if any party has a clear advantage at this point.
"This is very much a toss-up race," he said. "It's hard to say which side has the advantage"
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