Oddly enough, the 2008 Democratic primary provides an excellent backdrop for 2010 midterms. As surprising as it may be, the party that can benefit most from such an analysis is not the Democrats. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton ran the longest battle for a major party nomination in recent history. They both, however, ran under unique banners: Obama campaigned to the left, opposing the war from the beginning, and Clinton touted her leadership skills to appeal to centrists. How, then, could they end so comparatively close? What exactly sprang Obama across the finish line? The lessons taken from this race should not be missed by Republicans in 2010 unless they want to squander their chances this fall.
As the Republican Party moves to the right this spring, they should so without haste. Former Clinton advisor Dick Morris isn't the best consultant in the nation, but his application of median voter theory continues to be relevant. It was this idea to emphasize centrist appeal that put one Clinton in the White House and made another Clinton viable. Nominee Obama moved slightly to the center after victory, but will the current wave of Republican challengers do the same? To speak without bias, extreme polarization from either side is not a smart move for any party or the country as a whole. And evidence of a Republican shift to the right has become increasingly apparent in recent months.
I am well aware the GOP anticipates a surge of activism. Republicans consider the Tea Parties their constituency. They recognize opposition to the healthcare bill. They know the public wants more action on the economy than has been done and they understand the dissatisfaction with the bailouts and the stimulus package. Whether or not I agree, I do recognize potential for Republicans to make significant gains this year if they play their cards right. Unfortunately for them, but to the enjoyment of Democrats, they seem poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Voters need only look to the Senate primaries in Florida or Arizona to understand my point.
Republican Charlie Crist of Florida, a seemingly bipartisan governor who is very popular across the Sunshine State, made the dire mistake of appearing at a speech with President Obama shortly after the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. It is this very photo-op that has prompted a fierce primary challenge from the right by Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. Can a Republican governor not meet with a Democratic president in public to discuss a stimulus package that has major implications for his state? Must officials restrict themselves solely to those of the respective party to avoid a challenge from the outer flank of the party? Surely politics has not come to this. Closing the tent to those solely on the extreme right will prove disastrous for Republicans this fall. A centrist like Crist should be the ideal candidate. Popular in all demographics, he now finds himself down by 23 points.
But the demise of moderate Republicans does not stop there. After party leaders issued endorsement after endorsement to Rubio, they have also shied away as former Arizona Congressman J.D. Hayworth challenges Sen. John McCain for the senate nod. Although many of McCain's close friends, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have announced their support for McCain, the mere fact that someone who has worked so diligently to build a bipartisan reputation is under threat from his own party is disturbing. McCain has even refuted his common label as a 'maverick' who bucks the party to get things done because of this challenge. Sen. McCain should not be in a bitter nomination fight. If a birther - someone who challenges the legitimacy of President Obama's citizenship - like Hayworth is the face of a renewed Republican Party, then the Republicans Party is in trouble this fall.
Sen. Graham is also the victim of such politics. Several state committees withdrew their support for him after he sided with Democrats to try to pass climate change legislation. Newly elected Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts is also under attack from party leadership for voting to extend unemployment benefits. Is there no consensus-building in politics these days? Do the Republicans on the right really think they represent mainstream America?
Americans want leaders who stick to the center and deliver results. If the GOP wants to capitalize on its potential this fall, it will nominate strong candidates willing to get things done no matter who is in charge. Americans do not care which party leads us to a sustainable energy economy, strong national security or a sound education system. They care that it gets done and that Washington delivers. Though many contend that the District is too partisan now, those critics will be overwhelmed by a plethora of Marco Rubios and J.D Hayworths if the GOP gets its way this fall. By all means, stand by your principles, but now is no time for rhetoric without compromise with so much at stake for our country. The GOP will find itself on much higher ground this fall if it heeds Dick Morris' plain but worthy advice: Most voters are centrists. If you woo them, they will come.
Rex Young is a Viewpoint writer for The Cavalier Daily. His column appears Tuesdays.
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