Look at a map of the world at night and you will see a beautiful array of bright lights. Cities and urban centers gleam like gems. Highways are visible lines, illuminated by commercial development that clings to their sides. Something, however, is amiss. Not far from the sapphire blue lights caused by fishing trolleys on the Sea of Japan, there is a black blot on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea - a regime based on archaic communist ideology that takes part in oppression that would make even Machiavelli's stomach turn - is the black hole on that luminous map. Hopefully, that region will soon be relit. The North Korean regime must be brought down from within, but that does not mean outside powers should stand idly on the sidelines.
While the Hermit Kingdom tries to keep the West's "prying" eyes off its borders, it is common knowledge that North Korean citizens have been, and continue to be, oppressed by their government. Prison camps and detention centers dot the countryside; citizens can be arrested, degraded and tortured by the whims of officials. Even residents in good standing are starving and live in constant fear of agitating the wrong person. North Koreans are more like hostages than citizens. There is hope, however, for the starving masses that have been held back by an authoritarian communist regime while their southern counterparts have flourished under democratic capitalism. "Supreme Leader" Kim Jong Il - despite his government's claims - is in failing health. Recently, he announced that his son, Kim Jong Un, will be his successor. This is where the brightest beam of light shines through: Despite the amount of training and preparation Un has received to fill his father's post, it is doubtful that the already unstable country will be able to withstand the transition from Il to his basketball-loving, Swiss-educated 27-year-old son.
North Korea faced massive famine in the 1990s because of its failed economic policies and loss of support after the Soviet Union's collapse. Although food shortages have been mitigated to some extent, food is still a scarce commodity. Empty stomachs, especially over a long period of time, tend to be a potent fuel for revolution. It was not a coincidence that France had been struggling with significant famine on the eve of its revolution, and it should be no surprise now that the current food shortages in North Korea are compounding discontent. Additionally, with increased access to modern technologies and the renewed South Korean effort to spread propaganda across the borders, North Koreans are becoming more aware of the extent of their suppression. There is still significant devotion, particularly from the military, to Il's cult, as well as that of his father. Even so, Un may have a much harder time securing military and public support. These current problems may help North Koreans break free from oppression in the near future.
The North Korean regime will have to collapse from within because military involvement against the nation is too risky. North Korea is a nuclear power, and it is doubtful that Il would have many reservations against employing nuclear retaliation to maintain power. China also continues strong political connections with the sunglass-clad Il; the use of military force, particularly from the United States, could be devastating to relations in the region.
Still, this does not mean that the world, and in particular the United States, should do nothing. China is North Korea's lifeline. America must persuade the Middle Kingdom to place more pressure on North Korea, but this will be tricky because China has shown strong resolve to maintain its influence in and relations with North Korea. In fact, Il's recent visits to Beijing suggest China may even assist the transition of power to his son. North Korea, however, is becoming increasingly difficult for China to support. The sinking of the South Korean ship, Cheonan, by a North Korean torpedo - in addition to its economic, political and agricultural instability - has made North Korea a liability for China to support. America needs to convince China that it is in China's best interest to maintain a stable East Asia - an utter impossibility if North Korea remains a totalitarian time bomb.
Despite the Six Party Talks, in which the regional powers attempted to encourage North Korea to decrease it nuclear capacity, there is still considerable fear that North Korea might attempt to increase its nuclear production capabilities, according to the Global Security Newswire. The best course of action for the United States is to continue to work with the Chinese to place further pressure on North Korea. This pressure will be vital in coming years when a transition of power might create enough political instability for the Hermit Kingdom to break. Working with the region, maintaining high sanctions and increasing Chinese involvement should help bring the North Korean dictatorship down to its knees. If the region can plan ahead on how to best get the nation back on its feet after a regime change, the North Korean people may finally have the chance to overthrow the Northern regime. That would allow the people of North Korea to rejoin, not only their southern half, but the modern world as well.
Nathan Jones' column appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at n.jones@cavalierdaily.com.
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