BESSE Cooper, the world's oldest person, recently celebrated her 115th birthday. While reaching such an age is a rare feat, the number of centenarians in the United States has grown at a swift rate in recent years. In fact, it is estimated that the U.S. will have more than 600,000 centenarians by 2050. Some scientists even claim the average human lifespan could increase to 150 years within this lifetime.
To put that in perspective, the current average U.S. life expectancy is about 78 years. While on the surface the idea of living for 150 years could be tempting for some individuals, such long life probably would lead to the world as a whole being worse off.
Thanks to rapid advances in science, medicine and anti-aging research, scientists and doctors are getting closer to learning what prolongs people's lives. By using gene therapy, diet manipulation and other techniques, researchers have been able to lengthen the lives of many different kinds of animals. Similarly, scientists are well on their way to developing transplantable organs grown from tissues outside the human body, which could help replace injured or dysfunctional body parts.
The question is, will almost doubling the current average life expectancy lead to a better world? Living for a century and a half is such a foreign concept at the moment that it is hard to surmise much, but the cons seem to outweigh the pros. Scientists say the most important objective of their work is not just extending the number of years lived, but also prolonging the number of active years a person has. One could therefore remain active for a century or more.
There would be some positive aspects to this. Staving off death for twice as long would allow people to spend more time with family and friends, experience more of the world and explore more interests than before. An increased average lifespan also could boost a nation's economic prosperity. A higher average lifespan means a greater number of productive people in the workforce, each of whom can produce for a longer period of time.
Enabling people to live longer, however, will not serve as a heal-all for the societal problems we have today. To the contrary, current problems in some nations likely will be exacerbated by increased lifespans in others. Surely the technology needed to keep people alive for record times will be available only in the most affluent nations. These countries are already the ones that are at or near the top of the international life expectancy rankings. Therefore, poor nations will continue to have shorter life expectancies and consequently will find themselves even more economically and technologically disadvantaged.
Increasing the longevity of citizens in the world's wealthiest nations also will lead to greater demand for natural resources and put further strain on the environment. With concerns about the future availability of food, water and oil, major adjustments are necessary to account for a significant rise in world population. It has been estimated that the world currently is consuming resources faster than it can replenish them at a ratio of 3:2. In other words, we are consuming as if we had the available resources of 1.5 earths. Finding adequate space for a larger population may prove problematic too.
There are still those who doubt the timetable given by confident scientists for when humans will live to be 150 years old. Disbelievers cite recent studies that indicate obesity has led to a decrease in child life expectancies by causing diabetes, heart disease and other health problems. This is not only plausible, but comforting. If humans are to live for 150 years, then it will need to come at a time after we have solved our major sustainability problems. Otherwise, we will lay waste to our planet even faster than we currently are.
Yet whatever one's views on the potentially drastic increase in life expectancy, the anti-aging accomplishments made by scientists already have or soon will see very positive results in aiding the sick and wounded. Though it will not extend life by a century, the ability to re-grow organs and improve lifestyle through gene therapy and stem cell research will be extremely useful in curing disease.
Hopefully, it will be a while before a healthy person can live for 150 years, but fortunately even a gravely ill person could soon be able to reach the normal life expectancy of 78 years.
Alex Yahanda's column normally appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at a.yahanda@cavalierdaily.com.
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