In the age of 24 hour-a-day sports coverage, overreaction has become the norm. We all have become conditioned to extremism - every fumble is cause for a benching, each loss means it's time for a coach to go and an upset is a surefire sign that the season is over. While sports writers looking to make deadline are often the worst perpetrators, fans are by no means immune from jumping to unwarranted conclusions. Judging by the screams I heard while standing in the bleachers at Scott Stadium last Saturday, by the time the Cavaliers take the field next Saturday against Idaho they should, in no particular order: have either Ross Metheny or David Watford starting at quarterback - there were also a few calls for a Marc Verica return (I pray they were sarcasm), an entirely new defensive backfield (preferably one which knows the importance of actually covering the middle of the field) and not only show defensive coordinator Jim Reid the quickest way onto Interstate 64 out of Charlottesville, but also tar and feather him on his way out. OK, so maybe I was the one doing a lot of that screaming, but now that I've calmed down and seen the error of my ways, I am here to help everyone learn from my mistakes.
In the wake of any defeat, it is always more convenient to allow the bad to outweigh the good. After all, if the scoreboard shows more points for the other guys, then obviously there were more negatives than positives, right? Although that is usually the situation, I'm not so sure it completely applies in this case. The Cavaliers really didn't play all that poorly against the Golden Eagles, and many of the mistakes they committed were flukes which likely won't be repeated for the rest of the season. I can think of three distinct plays which epitomized the weirdness of Saturday's game: that bizarre two-point conversion attempt after the Cavaliers' opening score, the fake punt which accounted for nearly half of the Golden Eagles' net rushing yards during the game, and the now-infamous third-and-23.
The strangeness of the day started even before the opening kickoff. Despite weather reports calling for rain, the clouds never opened but instead hovered right above Scott Stadium, making the atmosphere more appropriate for a low-budget horror movie than a football game. Even the normal stalwarts of the program, Cavman and the Cavalier Marching Band, seemed off - the team was late following the horseman out of the tunnel and at halftime the band made the biggest disgrace to men in tights since this summer's Green Lantern movie, where they incorrectly labeled both Robin Hood and James Bond as superheroes.
Let's take a quick look at those three plays, shall we? First, the two-point attempt that saw the Cavaliers line up in what my old clinic football coach used to call the "Lonely Polar Bear" formation - with only the center, holder and kicker in their normal positions and everyone else spread wide. This wasn't the first time Virginia lined up like that to take the extra point, but every previous time they had motioned back into a more traditional field goal formation. Presumably, holder Jacob Hodges saw something in the Southern Mississippi defense which made him think the trick play would work, but judging by coach London's subsequent sideline reaction, I think we'll be seeing plenty of PAT attempts by kicker Robert Randolph in the future.
Next, the fake punt. On this one, we need to give some credit to punter Danny Hrapmann for having the stones to run it out when he was punting from his own end zone. On a day when the Cavaliers otherwise completely bottled up the opponent's running game, Hrapmann's rush accounted for 31 of Southern Mississippi's 61 total ground yards. That play was the difference between getting the ball back in great field position and allowing a drive which eventually ended in the Cavaliers' end zone to continue - a huge momentum swing. Again, the bittersweet part of getting burned by a fake punt is that even though it hurts the opposing team, its defense will be hypervigilant for such fourth-down trickeration in future contests.
Finally, we come to third-and-23. Entering the game, the Cavaliers allowed opponents to succeed on only 31 percent of third-down attempts. That number soared to practically 50 percent - 10-of-21 - against Southern Mississippi Saturday. I don't know if the Golden Eagles' spread packages were unfamiliar to Virginia or if the Cavaliers were a little overzealous in pursuing fakes, but something was wrong with the defense. The statistics show that most of what happened was a complete aberration, and as sabermetricians will tell you, any statistical anomaly will be met by a steep regression toward the mean. The Cavaliers didn't force 31 percent conversion rates prior to Saturday by accident. Three games, while admittedly not too many, still provide a sufficient sample size. Statistics tell us that Virginia's inability to get off the field on third down was an aberration which shouldn't be repeated during future games.
So there you have it - three flukes which contributed to a heartbreaking loss. If I had more room, I could go on and on about a momentum-killing kickoff which flew out of bounds, a gimpy quarterback who threw picks he never would throw under healthier circumstances and a normally sure-handed receiver inexplicably coming down with a case of the "dropsies" when the team needed him most. The point here is that you shouldn't get too worked up about Saturday's loss. Yes, the loss does hurt the Cavaliers' chance at a bowl game, but calls to bench Michael Rocco and Kris Burd or fire coaches and public address announcers who can never seem to get the timing right on the "Go Hoos" chant are way overblown - OK, maybe that last one actually needs to happen. Saturday was merely a series of unfortunate events. The Cavaliers have lost two in a row, but Virginia is still rebuilding and the program's arrow is still pointing very much in an upward direction.
Of course, if the Cavaliers lose next Saturday against Idaho, that will be a completely different story.
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