North Korea has made many nations nervous. In response to the military threats coming out of the East Asian dictatorship, the United States has sent missiles to be stationed in Guam, and the United Nations has implemented additional sanctions. While North Korea is volatile at the moment, the regime does not pose as significant a danger as many believe.
Experts have concluded that North Korea has a significant number of artillery guns stationed near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), which puts South Korea, particularly Seoul, in danger — the South Korean capital is only 30 miles from the DMZ. North Korea has already threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire.”
While North Korea could inflict significant damage on Seoul, the country would face heavy repercussions for such actions. Though North Korea might be able to score a victory in Seoul, it would have to then face the full force of both the South Korean and U.S. militaries. There have been U.S. troops in South Korea since the Korean War, as the two Koreas are technically still in conflict. Provoking force from South Korea and the U.S. would threaten the North Korean regime with collapse. North Korea is not as stable as it once was, and a war would likely be catastrophic for the nation. It serves no purpose for North Korea to engage in warfare with more powerful militaries. For these reasons, a full-scale attack on South Korea is unlikely.
North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world, numbering at around one million soldiers, according to the Korea Economic Research Institute. South Korean military strength, on the other hand, amounts to a (still large) 700,000 with an additional 28,000 U.S. troops. But North Korea’s military equipment is not very advanced, especially in comparison with South Korea, which has been receiving weapons from the U.S. for decades. Some of North Korea’s weapons are from the 1990s. South Korea, on the other hand, is constantly procuring up-to-date weapons. Overall, North Korea does not have the military capabilities to launch a successful attack on its southern neighbor.
One could argue that while North Korea does not have advanced weapons, China does. This is important since China has supported North Korea since the Korean War. But China too has criticized the current threats made by North Korean President Kim Jong-un. In fact, China collaborated with the U.S. via a UN resolution to admonish North Korea for its nuclear testing. The effectiveness of UN resolutions aside, the fact that China is concerned with North Korea’s nuclear testing indicates a potential rift in China’s relationship with North Korea. It would also be to China’s disadvantage if the North Korean government fails. A regime collapse would lead to a huge humanitarian crisis because it would result in the dispersion of people. Because North Korea borders China, many refugees would travel across the border to China, which would be problematic for the Chinese government.
I perceive North Korea’s threatening rhetoric as a mechanism for Kim Jong-un to consolidate power. He is only recently in a position to lead his nation and needs to secure his position. Military victory is generally a way to secure and legitimize power. Essentially, Kim Jong-un’s threats are empty. Yet the situation is still volatile, so some confrontation is possible, though a full-scale war does not seem likely. That outcome is not advantageous for any party, be it North Korea, South Korea, China or the U.S.
Fariha Kabir is an Opinion writer for The Cavalier Daily. Her column appears on Wednesday.
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