Virginia’s status as a key swing state in Presidential elections has caused many people to turn to Virginia as a predictor of national midterm elections. With Virginia gubernatorial elections quickly approaching on November 5, Republican Candidate Ken Cuccinelli and Democratic Candidate Terry McAuliffe strive to not only win the Virginia election, but to also influence national elections.
Center for Politics Spokesperson Geoff Skelley said, although Virginia elections do sometimes seem to predict national elections, Virginia’s current election is more of an anomaly.
“I think when looking at this election, it will not tell us anything about 2014 because the two candidates both have their respective flaws, so nothing can be determined for sure,” Skelley said.
The Cavalier Daily examined how good the prior year’s presidential race was at predicting the outcome of the Virginia Governor’s race, and how good the Virginia Governor’s race was at predicting the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate midterm elections immediately following it.
The Cavalier Daily used Stata software to analyze election results from 1968 until the present. The results offer positive news for Cuccinelli.
At no time since 1968 has a Democrat occupied both the Virginia Governor’s Mansion and the White House, and the data suggest that having a Democrat in the White House is a good predictor of a Republican winning the race for governor.
In addition, The Cavalier Daily was confident that no change in the party holding the White House was a good predictor of no change in the party holding the Governor’s Mansion.
While there has not been a Republican-controlled House and a Republican as Governor of Virginia since 1970, Virginia’s Gubernatorial race was not found to be a good predictor of the next year’s midterm elections. So, despite the national media attention, whichever party loses this race has little cause for concern.
Skelley said this conclusion follows the patterns of past elections.
“Since 1977, every gubernatorial election ends in the candidate from the party opposite the party in the White House winning the election,” Skelley said. “This trend speaks to the fact that voters who are more animated are of the party that is not in the White House, whereas the other side is more complacent.”
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