For Governor Chris Christie, the path to reelection started with a storm — Superstorm Sandy, that is. In a state where the majority of voters disagree with the sitting Governor on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage, the best thing that Christie could have hoped for was a means that could enable him to shift the focus of the race away from policy concerns to an area where he knew he could win: trust. Sandy provided him with such an opportunity. Christie’s resulting reelection has demonstrated that trust and likability are two of the most powerful factors that can help politicians win elections.
Within a year, New Jersey voters both resoundingly backed President Obama and their Republican governor in their respective reelection bids. The percentage of New Jersey votes was 58 percent for Obama and 60 percent for Christie. Despite the well-known policy differences of these two men, the voters of New Jersey did not seem to weigh their policy considerations as heavily as voters in other states. The voters’ key concern this time around, so it seems, was something entirely different: trust.
New Jersey voters, plagued in recent years by corruption in Trenton, had been yearning for a governor that they could rely on. Recent political scandals in the capital, such as accusations of extortion during the administration of Governor Jim McGreevey, have promulgated a lack of trust in state politics. In such an environment, it is not surprising that voters craved a politician that they could depend on. The relative lack of scandals in Christie’s term has provided them with some relief.
Prior to the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, Christie’s reelection was by no means assured. Some polls showed that the governor race in the state was relatively close. In a poll by Quinnipiac University taken in October of 2012, prior to the storm, Christie came in at 49 percent. In nearly every poll following the storm, polls consistently put Christie at 60 percent or greater.
Out of the storm’s wreckage emerged a somewhat changed governor, one who emphasized his duty as a leader in a time of crisis. His response to the disaster, marked both by his attitude of resilience and demands for federal assistance, appealed strongly to a wide base of Jersey voters, including many Democrats. Indeed, exit polls showed that 85 percent of voters approved of the way that the governor handled the storm. In many ways, his appeal as an attentive, dependable leader during the crisis effectively displaced more partisan concerns over his specific policies. The trust element has proven to be a powerful factor in Christie’s success, particularly in attracting Democratic voters to his cause. In 2009, Christie was only able to garner 8 percent of Democratic voters, yet in 2013, this number rose to a startling 38 percent.
The “spirit of Sandy” infused New Jersey politics with an atmosphere of compromise and of mutual trust. Believe me when I say that for a state whose citizens place a high premium on self-reliance, this is anything but an easy task. The storm made politics intensely intimate in a way that New Jerseyans have not experienced in recent memory. The immediacy of the governor’s response to the storm elicited an emotional response from voters of all varieties. In this environment, the conventional electoral atmosphere was turned upside-down — there was a momentary suspension of traditional, issue-motivated voting behavior.
Yet, as New Jersey moves forward, voters may find their feelings of trust transitory. Absent a new natural disaster, Christie may find it difficult to sustain the public trust which was generated in the wake of last year’s storm. Moreover, Trenton will likely return to the business of governing as usual, which necessarily includes a return to traditional party politics. This, in turn, may serve to reignite partisan divides among voters. As a state that continues to be a hotbed of many currently evolving political and social issues such as unemployment, gay marriage and education, New Jersey may be unable to avoid a reintensification of party politics.
Though the power of trust and leadership have carried Christie to victory on a largely non-Republican platform, there is reason to doubt that the aforementioned “spirit of Sandy” will be potent enough to preclude a new escalation of political rifts. New Jersey may have voted their governor back into office based upon non-partisan considerations, yet they should not be surprised if state politics become fiercely partisan once more. Christie’s partisan agenda will likely come to be contentious in the years ahead.
Though one exit poll shows that in a general election, New Jersey voters would still favor Hillary Clinton over Chris Christie, New Jersey voters were effectively swayed in this election by Christie’s emphasis on trust. Politicians rarely receive the opportunity to connect personally with their constituents in a way that establishes a lasting sense of trust. Last year’s storm provided Christie with such an opportunity, allowing him to firmly establish his likability and, in the process, secure his re-election.
Conor Kelly is an Opinion Columnist for The Cavalier Daily. His columns run on Tuesdays.
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