Finals season is upon us and there are just four weeks of the NFL regular season to go. That means it’s about time for an age-old tradition that football-fanatic college students like me participate in every year: trying hard to concentrate on my studies, banging my head on my desk a couple of times, cursing my non-existent willpower and then heading back to ESPN.com to try to predict how the playoffs will turn out.
For us armchair prognosticators, 2013 has not disappointed. Some spots have been pretty well sewn up by now, but there are still open division and wild card races that will leave the final seeding up for grabs until the dust settles on Week 17. That won’t stop me though. Let’s attempt to predict how the teams in playoff contention will finish the season.
In the AFC, spots one through five seem to be locked up. Denver rebounded from last week’s New England debacle to knock off division-rival Kansas City for the second time in two weeks. The 10-2 Broncos should steamroll the rest of their schedule and claim the top seed. The Patriots followed their big comeback against the Broncos by giving up 31 points to the lowly Texans, but appear to have an easy path to No. 2 as well.
The Colts and Bengals both sit at 8-4 with two division games left, but the weak AFC South should propel the Colts to 11-5 and the third seed, while the physical AFC North will keep Cincinnati in the No. 4 spot. And the Chiefs will wrap up a 13-3 season with a wild card berth, a somewhat disappointing outcome for the last NFL team to lose a game this year.
But the last wild card spot in the AFC is wide open. Five teams are in contention — Baltimore and Miami are 6-6, and Tennessee, Pittsburgh and San Diego are 5-7. Looking at recent results and remaining schedules, the Dolphins and Ravens appear to be the most likely No. 6 squads. But the Ravens’ brutal season-ending slate — Minnesota at home should be a cakewalk, but they play Detroit and the Patriots before finishing the season at division rival Cincinnati — gives the edge to the Dolphins, who also play the Patriots, but get to chase that with matchups against the lowly Bills and Jets.
That sets the AFC up for a divisional round featuring a Chiefs-Broncos rematch and a Colts-Patriots tilt that lacks the luster of the Brady-Manning duels of old, but could rekindle the rivalry now that Andrew Luck is establishing himself as a bright young quarterback.
Meanwhile, in the NFC, things are both more and less settled. I count only eight teams with realistic shots at playoff berths, but there are multiple divisions still up for grabs and one very high seed at stake. Seattle has almost certainly wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the conference after dominating the Saints from start to finish Monday night. The 34-7 win against one of the NFL’s best teams put the whole league on notice. The combination of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ suffocating defense make for a team that has to be considered the best in the NFC, if not the Super Bowl favorite.
The No. 2 seed is where things start to get interesting. New Orleans and Carolina, NFC South rivals, both sit at 9-3 — although under very different circumstances. The Saints were just crushed on national television, while the Panthers have won eight in a row and are the hottest team in the NFL right now. A pair of Saints-Panthers matchups in the closing weeks of the season mean that this race will come down to the wire, and it sure feels like these teams are going to split their contests, which means — tiebreakers!
If both teams win their other two games — Carolina against the Jets and Falcons, New Orleans against the Buccaneers and Rams — the second seed comes all the way down to the fourth tiebreaker, conference record, which goes to the Saints because of Carolina’s early-season loss to the Cardinals. Both teams should finish 12-4, but the Panthers would be forced to go on the road as a wild card.
The third seed is also up for grabs, as likely division winners Detroit and Dallas — both 7-5 — duke it out. The difference? Detroit has dropped too many games they should not have lost this season, while Dallas’ only loss to a sub-.500 team came against a tough Chargers squad. As much as it pains me to say it, the Cowboys run the table to claim the third seed, while the Lions lose a game they shouldn’t and settle for No. 4.
After the NFC South “loser” comes No. 6, which should go comfortably to San Francisco. The 49ers are definitely mortal this year, and they will likely lose to Seattle this weekend. But their remaining games are against the Bucs, Falcons and Cardinals, none of whom should give Frisco much trouble. The Niners finish the season at 11-5 and claim the sixth and final playoff spot, setting up a delicious divisional round potentially featuring Saints-Panthers and Seahawks-49ers rematches, with another rematch on tap for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Of course, things can and will change between now and the start of the playoffs. A presumed favorite could slump, or a sleeper could get hot at the right time. That’s what makes predictions like these so tricky. But I’m still going to make them — after all, I need something to do in between my rare bouts of productivity. Why not football?
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