Rising sea levels as predicted by current data could prove detrimental in the next 100 years — a narrative which is being examined by Environmental Sciences Prof. Karen McGlathery of the University’s Marine Ecology Lab, who is leading an investigation of the impacts of rising sea levels on coastal wetlands in Virginia.
McGlathery plans to make use of a $2 million grant from the National Science Foundation and a $1.5 million grant from the Department of the Interior to build computer models related to the investigation.
“[Salt] marshes have this natural feedback where they can capture sediments and increase in vertical elevation, so they can grow as sea levels rise,” McGlathery said.
Human activity may limit sediment uptake by salt marshes. McGlathery said the consequences of inaction would be severe.
“These wetlands would reach a tipping point where they would be drowned and become a part of the bottom of the sea,” McGlathery said.
Losing wetlands could prove detrimental to the commercial seafood industry in addition to causing overall ecosystem damage and land loss, McGlathery said. The computer models she builds are used to make specific predictions of the outcomes of rising sea levels and the ability of marshes to hold their ground.
“The models essentially will simulate these feedbacks between the flooding of the marsh, the amount of sediment in the water and the ability of the marsh to keep pace vertically with sea levels,” McGlathery said.
These models are interactive, offering predictions based on parameters such as rising sea level rates or marsh movement inland set by the user.
McGlathery said the companion project funded by the DOI and the Nature Conservancy also includes a special visualization tool which would allow policymakers and stakeholders to better understand the impact of this ecological damage to their communities.
Though the investigation looks into localized impacts, McGlathery said the causes of rising sea levels are both global and local.
“We know that rising sea levels are caused by three things: … the warming of the water which causes the water to expand, the melting of glaciers and then the melting of polar ice caps,” McGlathery said.
The greatest uncertainty lies in the melting of polar ice caps, which she said translates into variability in her models.
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