The Oscars are Sunday, and with them the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce its picks for the best of film in 2014.
Some winners will be lauded, others will be disputed. And some categories have clear frontrunners, while other races are up in the air.
I have identified who I believe will win, and who I think should win. Look for “Birdman,” a dark comedy about show business, to win Best Picture, while “The Grand Budapest Hotel” takes the most awards overall.
Best Picture
Will Win: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” - Alejandro González Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole
Dark Horse: “Boyhood” - Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland
My Vote: “Selma” - Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
Precursor awards have sent mixed signals about who is the frontrunner. “Birdman” pulled the Hollywood Guilds triple-crown (Producers Guild Award, Screen Actors Guild Best Cast Award, and Directors Guild Award), but it had a poor showing at the British Academy Film Awards, Britain’s version of the Oscars.
Critical favorite “Boyhood” lacked guild wins, but its strong BAFTA performance was certainly a boost. The BAFTAs have correctly predicted the Best Picture winner for the last six years, but otherwise its prediction track record is spotty. Of the previous eight movies to win the three major Guild Awards, three lost the BAFTA while only one (“Apollo 13”) lost Best Picture. The case may have been unique because the movie was clearly weakened going into Oscar night, failing to receive a Best Director nomination. Ultimately, precursor wins for “Birdman” put it in the best shape to win it all.
My choice candidate is the infamously-snubbed “Selma.” The movie was a gripping and powerful historical drama that definitely should have received more attention for its accomplishments. However, both “Boyhood” and “Birdman” share “Selma’s” perch as representing the best of the nominees, and either would be a more than worthy victor.
Best Director
Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu – “Birdman”
Dark Horse: Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”
My Vote: Richard Linklater
Since Iñárritu won the DGA, he is the safe pick to win the Oscar, especially considering the DGA winner has taken home the Oscar all but seven times. Richard Linklater is still a dark horse for “Boyhood,” a film 12 years in the making. His creation merits attention for its relaxed, awe-inspiring, coming-of-age story that effectively captures the feeling of growing up.
Linklater’s win at the BAFTAs means that he does have a chance to pull an upset, but history is on Iñárritu’s side. However, between Best Picture and Best Director, “Boyhood” is more likely to pull an upset there.
Best Actor
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne – “The Theory of Everything” as Stephen Hawking
Dark Horse: Michael Keaton – “Birdman” as Riggan Thomson
My Vote: Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne has the SAG and BAFTA wins, so his performance in “The Theory of Everything” is the definitive frontrunner. However, this category does not feel settled. Bradley Cooper has been absent for most of the season, but he could pull an upset with his transformation in “American Sniper.” This is also his 3rd Oscar Nomination in a row. If “Sniper” wins in a top category, it would be here, so Cooper is the wild card.
I still think the dark horse is Michael Keaton. His performance creates the core of “Birdman,” and it is hard to believe that his terrific work has not been acknowledged while “Birdman” itself has risen in the races for Best Picture and Director. His performance may well be the best acting of the year. However, Redmayne beat him at the SAG and BAFTAs, and Redmayne’s performance seems more up the Academy’s alley.
Best Actress
Will Win: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice” as Dr. Alice Hawland*
Dark Horse: Reese Witherspoon – “Wild” as Cheryl Strayed
My Vote: Rosamund Pike – “Gone Girl” as Amy Elliott-Dunne
Julianne Moore has run the board of precursor awards, so this Oscar has her name on it. However, the best work in this category is Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl.” The fact that she could make her psychotic character sympathetic is truly amazing.
*Disclosure: I have not seen “Still Alice.”
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: J.K. Simmons – “Whiplash” as Terence Fletcher
Dark Horse: Edward Norton – “Birdman” as Mike Shiner
My Vote: J.K. Simmons
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash” is something to behold. His menacing aura is omnipresent even when he’s off-screen, and he brings range to what could on paper be a one-note character. Edward Norton as a prestige theater actor in “Birdman” would be a winning performance in any other year, but this is Simmons’ to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood” as Olivia Evans
Dark Horse: Emma Stone – “Birdman” as Sam Thomson
My Vote: Patricia Arquette
Like Moore and Simmons, Patricia Arquette has won almost every major precursor award for her great work in “Boyhood,” and she should win here too. The possibility of an upset is near zero.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness
Dark Horse: “Birdman” – Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicholás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo
My Vote: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Either “The Grand Budapest Hotel” or “Birdman” should win here. However, I think Wes Anderson will win an Oscar this year, and this is the category where he is most likely to be rewarded. The Academy is not afraid to honor quirky movies in this category, as evidenced by last year’s winner, “Her.” It is also worth noting that “Budapest” won out over “Birdman” in this category at the BAFTAs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: “The Imitation Game” – Graham Moore, adapted from “Alan Turing: The Enigma” by Andrew Hodges
Dark Horse: “The Theory of Everything” – Anthony McCarten, adapted from “Traveling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen” by Jane Hawking
My Vote: “Whiplash” – Damien Chazelle, adapted from his short film “Whiplash”
Here we have the battle of British biopics. It could go either way between “The Imitation Game” and “The Theory of Everything,” but the Alan Turing biopic has the edge since it has wide support across the board, with eight nominations versus five for “Everything.” While “Everything’s” screenplay beat “The Imitation Game” at the BAFTAs, it looks like the Academy likes “The Imitation Game” more, so look for it to win.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: “How to Train Your Dragon 2” - Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold*
Dark Horse: “Big Hero 6” - Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli*
Because “The LEGO Movie” inexplicably isn’t here, look for “Dragon” to repeat after winning at the Golden Globes.
*Disclosure: I have not seen this nominees.
Best Original Score
Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Alexandre Desplat
Dark Horse: “The Theory of Everything” –Jóhan Jóhannsson
My Vote: “Interstellar” – Hans Zimmer
I think Alexandre Desplat’s “Budapest” score will win out over his “Imitation Game” score because his work in Wes Anderson’s caper is such a vital aspect in setting the pace, tone and personality of the movie. Golden Globe winner “The Theory Everything” may upset, but Hans Zimmer’s sublime organ score for “Interstellar” deserves recognition. His score perfectly embodies the bold ambition and homeward yearning of the movie, and it is his best work in the long line of collaborations between Christopher Nolan and him.
Best Original Song
Will Win: “Glory” from “Selma” – Music and Lyrics by John Legend and Common
Dark Horse: “Everything Is Awesome” from “The LEGO Movie” – Music and Lyrics by Shawn Patterson
My Vote: “Everything Is Awesome”
“Selma” has to win something, and apart from Best Picture, this is the only other possibility. However, “Everything Is Awesome” is the better choice not only because is the song good, but also because it plays a key role in the plot of the movie.
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: “American Sniper” – Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
Dark Horse: “Interstellar” – Richard King
My Vote: “American Sniper”
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: “American Sniper” – John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
Dark Horse: “Whiplash” – Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley
My Vote: “Whiplash”
The right movie often wins both sound categories, and “American Sniper” is that movie. Look for the mega-hit to make its mark here for best Mixing and Editing.
Best Production Design
Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
Dark Horse: “Into the Woods” –Dennis Gassner (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
My Vote: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
This one has “The Grand Budapest Hotel’s” name on it already. Just look at an image of the film, and you’ll understand why it wins for its meticulous, creative production design, an element that contributed greatly to its imaginative world.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: “Birdman” – Emmanuel Lubezki
Dark Horse: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Robert Yeoman
My Vote: “Birdman”
Anyone who has seen “Birdman” will understand why Lubezki will win his second Oscar in a row here, his first being last year for “Gravity.” Its “one shot” set-up is truly a sight to behold, and it certainly wowed the Academy as well.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
Dark Horse: “Guardians of the Galaxy” – Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White
My Vote: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
While science fiction movies like “Guardians of the Galaxy” have won this award in the past (i.e. 2009’s “Star Trek”) look for “Budapest” to continue its craft awards streak.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Milena Canonero
Dark Horse: “Into the Woods” – Colleen Atwood
My Vote: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Meticulous period pieces tend to win here, and “Budapest” not only recreates several decades’ worth of dress, but it also does it with great style.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: “Boyhood” – Sandra Adair
Dark Horse: “American Sniper” – Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
My Vote: “Boyhood”
By seamlessly cutting together 12 years of footage, “Boyhood’s” editor should expect to be honored.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: “Interstellar” – Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
Dark Horse: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
My Vote: “Interstellar”
With depictions of black holes, wormholes and waves, the awesome effects seen in “Interstellar” will take home this prize over the motion-capture wizardry of “Apes.”
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: “Ida” – Poland, Pawel Pawlikowski
Dark Horse: “Leviathan” – Russia, Andrey Zvyagintsev
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: “CitizenFour” – Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutsky
Dark Horse: “Virunga” – Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Will Win: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
Dark Horse: “Joanna”
Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: “Boogaloo and Graham”
Dark Horse: “Aya”
Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: “Feast”
Dark Horse: “The Bigger Picture”
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