The biggest migration since the end of the second world war began this week as thousands of refugees and migrants from Syria, Iraq and other war-torn Arab countries streamed in from southern European countries with the intent of reaching stable Western European countries such as Germany. While nations like Germany and France have announced they will take in refugees in the tens and hundreds of thousands, there remains fierce debate in the European Union about how members should tackle the situation. Leaders like François Hollande and Angela Merkel have appealed to the EU to divide the influx of refugee and immigrant populations so as to help share the demographic burdens of mass migration. Some have stated the best solution is to focus on stabilizing the political situations in the Middle East so as to stop the mass migration from its source, while others have endorsed building walls or turning away boats so as to leave migrants stuck outside Europe (as Australia frequently does near its borders). What many leaders have failed to look at when trying to assess the situation in the Middle East is how climate change has played a crucial part in causing the mass migrations we are seeing today. In the long run, it will be climate change — not wars — that will lead to the biggest migration issues humans will face in the coming century. If Western leaders want to have serious discussions about solving issues of Eurasian mass migration, they need to address how climate change is causing immigration and how they can confront climate-related issues within countries hit the hardest.
A study published this summer by the Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences suggests a strong link between the severe Syrian drought of 2007-11 and the subsequent civil war that has ravaged the country and sent millions of refugees fleeing to Europe. According to the study, extended arid conditions in the Fertile Crescent caused an approximate 1.5 million farmers to migrate to cities for new job opportunities. The sudden injection of people into the already strained conditions of Syrian cities created rampant unemployment,and prime environments for discontent and uprising. While Syria deteriorated into a chaotic civil war, the group now known as the Islamic State took advantage of the region's total insecurity and captured huge swathes of the now-empty Syrian countryside, increasing their geopolitical power and influence.
Terms like “climate refugees” and “environmental migrants” have become buzzwords as man-made climate change is beginning to have its first serious effects on human populations. In Bangladesh, experts predict that 20 to 30 million people will be pushed out of their homes in the next 35 years as the Ganges Delta continues to flood. The majority of these people will have nowhere to go except overcrowded cities like Dhaka, where an approximate 5 million environmental refugees already live in slums. In the Pacific, rising sea levels are expected wipe the island nation of Tuvalu off the map by 2050. Even the United States is not exempt from the effects of extreme climate change — in Alaska, villages along the coastal plains of the Bering Straits are predicted to be flooded and destroyed by as early as 2017.
Out of the 2016 presidential candidates, only Martin O’Malley has spoken on the issue of environmental immigrants, connecting the rise of the Islamic State with climate change. Few leaders have even acknowledged climate change as a possible contributor to immigration issues, and practically no leader has taken any action on climate change in relation to fixing migration issues. Admittedly, it is hard to come up with solutions to problems as vast as rising sea levels and multi-year droughts. Regardless, it is imperative that world leaders recognize and work toward fixing the climate change crisis at their sources to prevent demographic chaos, even if they provide only acute solutions. First world countries could provide more funding for housing projects in Bangladesh, or help evacuate citizens of sinking island nations. If western leaders can prevent the creation of future climate refugees, then they will be able to stop potentially harmful migrational movements from ever existing in the first place.
Hasan Khan is an Opinion columnist for The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at h.khan@cavalierdaily.com.
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