The defining story in foreign affairs right now is the Syrian civil war. As the war drags on into its fifth year, there has been a death count of over 300,000. It is a humanitarian disaster on a scale not seen in decades and it has had a profound impact on the world — the Middle East, Europe and even the U.S. have found themselves deeply affected by this conflict. One failed state in the Middle East did this. This is what is currently happening in Venezuela, and the U.S. needs to ensure that there is not a repeat of what happened in Syria.
The global impact of the Syrian civil war is undeniable. ISIS rose to prominence in part because of a power vacuum that the conflict has created. Russia has been able to secure its influence on the country while it is a constant foreign policy embarrassment for the U.S. By far the most significant impact of the Syrian civil war is the ongoing refugee crisis. Not only have surrounding countries received millions of refugees, but European states are also overwhelmed with them. The refugee crisis is what, in part, sparked the recent flare up of global populism. Brexit and Donald Trump’s election can all be partially attributed to the Syrian civil war. A failed state can have a powerful global impact.
Though no country is as bad off as Syria, Venezuela has the potential to devolve into anarchy. Venezuela, a country of over 30 million, is failing. The country is largely dependent on oil exports for economic stability, and with the falling price of oil, the state has developed rampant problems. The government failed to save up money to weather economically tough times and it has led to a surprisingly quick decline of the economy. The Venezuelan economy contracted six percent last year while inflation increased nearly 180 percent. Predictions for this year forecast that these trends will only get worse.
Venezuela is not in danger of becoming a failed state any moment, but it is going to become one if nothing changes. Even if oil prices go back up, it won’t be easy to get inflation in check, or to grow the economy back to where it was before. At best Venezuela experiences some unrest, at worst the state fails and a civil war unfolds.
We are not ready for the worst case scenario. A failed Venezuela could send refugees into Columbia and Brazil, two countries that have their own problems to deal with without the added complication of refugees. Many of these refugees, potentially millions, could make their way to the U.S If that seems like a long way for refugees to go, just look at the millions of refugees that have settled in Germany despite how far away the country is from their home. Immigration would increase a substantial amount, even a border wall would not be able to keep them all out. There would also be a new humanitarian crisis in which thousands would likely die.
We need to start taking preemptive action to avoid a collapse of the Venezuelan state. Working with partners in the region, the U.S. should lead talks with Venezuela to figure out if there are any economic strategies — such as loans — that could boost the economy. Additionally, the United States and other Latin American countries should draw up preemptive plans on how to manage a significant refugee crisis.
I am not saying the collapse of Venezuela is inevitable or even more likely than that — the modern nation-state is amazingly resilient. Colombia was in a similar situation at one point and has managed to recover. However, Syria has shown that the risks of doing nothing are far too great. If we truly want to protect national security, if we want to put America first, then we need to ensure Venezuela’s security.
Bobby Doyle is an Opinion columnist for the Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at b.doyle@cavalierdaily.com.
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