Virginia football’s road woes continued last week as the team suffered its third-straight away loss to Louisville. The Cavaliers (5-3, 3-2 ACC) will now travel to Chapel Hill, N.C., to play North Carolina (4-4, 3-2 ACC) Saturday night.
The Cavaliers and the Tar Heels are currently tied for first place in the ACC Coastal division as both teams are right in the thick of a fight for a spot in the conference championship game. While both teams have multiple ACC matchups to play even after this weekend, Saturday’s game will play a pivotal role in deciding who tops the division.
Let’s take a look at the key players and factors that will decide the 124th rendition of “The South’s Oldest Rivalry.”
Key players
Freshman linebacker Nick Jackson
Virginia will be without one of its defensive leaders in senior linebacker Jordan Mack. Mack was ejected in the second half of the Louisville game for targeting the Cardinals’ quarterback. Due to the penalty, Mack is forced to sit out the first half of the North Carolina game. The loss of Mack for the first two quarters is huge as Jackson — an unproven freshman — will have to step up in his place.
“Nick is really smart ... he has the ability to play and make plays, and he tries hard,” Coach Bronco Mendenhall said at his weekly press conference Monday.
While Jackson clearly has the talent to contribute, expect there to be a noticeable drop-off from Mack, who leads the team and is second in the ACC in sacks.
Senior wide receiver Joe Reed
The Virginia offense has had some issues this year — the Cavaliers average the second-least total yards per game in the ACC. However, surprisingly, Virginia averages the sixth-most points in the conference. This noticeable discrepancy is, in part, due to the excellent play of Reed on kickoff returns.
Reed is currently averaging 38.1 yards per kick return — second-most in the entire country — meaning that he is consistently moving the ball up over a third of the field before Virginia senior quarterback Bryce Perkins even steps on the turf. Since the Tar Heels have only given up more than 25 points twice all season, Reed will need to be at his best to put Virginia in position to score.
Keys to the game
Win the turnover battle
Turnovers have been an obstacle for Perkins and company. So far in 2019, Virginia quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions and lost six fumbles, many of them on key possessions in the red zone.
“Before we attribute [our three losses] to anything else, the turnovers and lack of takeaways in those three games have certainly played a role,” Mendenhall said at his press conference.
In their three defeats this season, the Cavaliers gave up a combined eight turnovers and only recorded a single takeaway for themselves. This poor turnover margin makes it nearly impossible for Virginia to put together a strong performance through all four quarters and produce consistently on offense.
Make Sam Howell uncomfortable
North Carolina football took a big step this season largely thanks to the play of freshman quarterback Sam Howell. Howell — a four-star recruit and the 10th-ranked quarterback in the Class of 2019 — looks like a seasoned veteran on the field. He leads the ACC in passing yards and touchdowns and has turned a team that was expected to struggle this year into a divisional contender.
While Virginia has the second-best defense in the conference, Howell has the passing talent to shred the Cavaliers if he gets in a rhythm. Virginia has to do everything it can to disrupt Howell’s game — from an effective pass rush to lockdown coverage. In short, the Cavaliers’ defense will need to play at an elite level to stop arguably the most talented quarterback they will play all season.
Virginia will try to earn its 57th all-time win over North Carolina Saturday at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m.
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