As Virginia legends Ryan Dunn and Reece Beekman close the book on two special collegiate careers, a bright horizon is in sight — the NBA Draft in Brooklyn, N.Y. Wednesday at 8 p.m. on ESPN, with the second round Thursday at 4 p.m. on ESPN. While losing stars to the professional ranks is always bittersweet, Virginia’s representation in the NBA is a positive sign for Coach Tony Bennett and his program.
Dunn and Beekman are now entering a new age of professional basketball marked by tall guards and ultra-athletic two-way forwards, and their draft stock is a perfect representation of an ever-changing play style that values height and consistent shooting. Beekman, a smaller point guard, is part of a very strong guard class and may not hear his name called on draft night at all. Meanwhile, Dunn is the beneficiary of a subpar forward class, with his enticing defense and physical attributes being very attractive for a team in need of help on the defensive end.
Prediction: Dunn goes No. 24 overall to the New York Knicks
As a native of Freeport, N.Y., a hometown reunion would be a fun landing spot for Dunn. In terms of roster fit, the Knicks would absolutely love to have Dunn join their squad. While he is not a strong shooter by any measure, he can be a genuine difference-maker on defense.
The Knicks are just fine on offense — the game plan flows almost exclusively through All-NBA Second Team guard Jalen Brunson and former All-Star forward Julius Randle anyway, so Dunn will not be required to handle any sizable load on that end of the court. The 2023-24 season has shown teams that defense matters now more than ever, as squads like the Indiana Pacers are capable of scoring 130 points on any given night.
New York reached the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in 2024 but lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Pacers in seven games. In that conference semifinal series, the Knicks surrendered over 110 points in six out of those seven games — including a 130-109 loss in the elimination game. New York is clearly in desperate need of defensive help, and Dunn can be the answer even with his offensive limitations.
Dunn is an ultra-athletic wing who can do it all on defense. He forced a stellar 3.6 turnovers per game in his sophomore campaign with the Cavaliers. He also wields a strong ability to turn steals into ferocious dunks, in a rather similar fashion to Giannis Antetokounmpo — one of the best defenders in the NBA. Checking in at 6-foot-8, Dunn has consistently displayed an incredible ability to defend any position on the court.
Dunn was initially projected to go as high as the top 15 picks during Virginia’s regular season, but his glaringly weak offensive profile is a major turnoff for several organizations — making him a risky pick for any team that would count on him progressing as a shooter. However, playoff-level teams in need of a defensive specialist could do well by choosing the dynamic Dunn. He could fall as low as the middle of the second round but is arguably the best defender in the entire draft, and that status should solidify him as a first round selection. Other fits could be the Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks or Toronto Raptors.
Prediction: Beekman goes undrafted, signs with the Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee loves taking a chance on experienced college players as undrafted free agents such as former stars like Drew Timme of Gonzaga and former Cavalier Kihei Clark. Beekman could be the next — a Milwaukee native, a Beekman homecoming would be highly beneficial for both player and team.
The Bucks are sorely lacking in bench depth, especially at the point guard position. Milwaukee does have two draft picks to play with, but if they elect to take other positions, such as a successor to the 36-year-old center Brook Lopez, a point guard signing becomes a top priority. Beekman’s ideal role in the professionals will be as the perfect backup point guard, helping out on offense while providing elite defense and occasionally slashing to the rim for a few points.
Milwaukee and its experienced coaching staff make a great fit for Beekman. Playing alongside future Hall of Famers in Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard could do wonders for him in the pros. At 6-foot-3 and 194 pounds, Beekman does not fit the mold of the modern super-guard north of 6-foot-6 and will already be 23-years-old before the season starts. He needs the perfect situation to succeed. Receiving playing time off the bench on a playoff-caliber roster and learning from an experienced coach like Doc Rivers would be fantastic for Beekman.
The Virginia legend is certainly deserving of being a draft selection, but the 2024 guard class is simply too strong for a team to draft a smaller guard who averaged south of 20 points per game in college. There is still a reality in which a team takes a chance on Beekman towards the end of the second round, but the more likely scenario is Beekman will have his choice between several interested organizations after the draft concludes as an undrafted free agent. Other landing spots could be the Pacers or the Toronto Raptors.
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