Virginia football could easily be 6-0 right now. In fact, it would be, had the Cavaliers not suffered from self-inflicted wounds in the fourth quarter of two frustrating losses. Their 4-2 record is nothing to scoff at though, especially considering how the past two seasons have gone — but a troublesome trend is brewing. This team cannot seem to score inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, commonly referred to as the “red zone.” Virginia ranks 129th out of 134 teams in that category. Uncreative designs, poorly executed plays and a lack of clutch ability on offense are at the heart of a red zone scoring drought. And if the Cavaliers cannot fix the red zone issue, they will not be playing postseason football.
Part of what makes college football exciting is explosive plays. Flea flicker passes, end-arounds and other innovative plays are how some teams find a way to win, such as No. 1 Texas or No. 2 Oregon. Virginia has to follow this philosophy, and its wide receivers certainly have the talent to play creative football. Without getting prized recruits at running back and offensive line, it means the Cavaliers cannot rely on out-muscling their competition every week like they did against Coastal Carolina. Furthermore, Virginia’s offensive line is suffering from a plethora of injuries, so running the ball all day is not going to be a viable strategy. As a result, the Cavaliers need explosive plays to win. They have gotten those often, but not where it matters most — the red zone.
Virginia does a good job of getting deep into enemy territory, but once there, the offense just cannot consistently turn those red zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Cavaliers score on just 39 percent of their drives that reach the red zone, which ranks last in the ACC. Considering their two losses have come by a combined three possessions, failing to execute plays in the red zone is costly.
Since Virginia has proven unable to capitalize on these opportunities, they often have to settle for a field goal. Junior kicker Will Bettridge has performed admirably this year, but it is undeniable that touchdowns are more valuable than field goals. Bettridge’s success is appreciated — but offensive coordinator Des Kitchings and company are leaving critical points on the field when they keep having to settle for three points in the red zone instead of six. As a result of stalling out in enemy territory, Bettridge has already attempted 15 field goals in 2024. That is second-most in the ACC, and directly reflects the fact that Virginia has a problem.
Red zone struggles have persisted over the past few seasons, as it sometimes appears as if there just is not a strong plan for Kitchings’ offense in clutch situations. There is no area where this offense truly dominates compared to the rest of college football. The Cavaliers do not rank inside the top 25 teams in passing, rushing or total offense. They do not even rank inside the top 40 teams in any of those categories, and this lack of an elite pass game or run game often rears its ugly head in critical situations.
Take a must-score situation, for example. The Cavaliers got the ball with just under two minutes left in the game against Louisville, trailing just 24-20. Virginia moved the ball a bit, but sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea rifled three straight incomplete passes to senior receiver Malachi Fields before failing to connect with graduate tight end Tyler Neville on the final offensive play — and subsequently turning the ball over on downs.
When the fate of the game is on the line, it is evident that there is no clear plan. Kitchings likes to run the ball and occasionally take some deep passing attempts downfield throughout most of the game, but when push comes to shove, this offense looks lost as the game clock wanes down to triple zeroes.
Virginia’s other loss is also telling. Down 20-13 against Maryland, the Cavaliers got the ball with just over 12 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. On a critical third-and-eight, Fields earned enough yards for the first down — only to fumble. The Terrapins recovered and took advantage. Junior quarterback Billy Edwards ran for a touchdown to increase the lead to 27-13, but still, Virginia had seven minutes to make a comeback. Instead, the Cavaliers floundered. On fourth-and-10 in Maryland territory, Colandrea took off running and was tackled short of the first down mark. The Terrapins then ran the clock out and escaped with a victory that the Cavaliers absolutely should have been able to take for themselves instead.
One could point to games against Wake Forest and Boston College as impressive close wins, but those were absolutely won by the defense forcing critical fumbles and not the offense stepping up late.
There is not a singular culprit for this mind-boggling lack of clutch ability, but rather there are far too many mistakes causing a problematic trend. Failing to finish drives with a touchdown can let opponents hang around in close games where the Cavaliers should be holding a big lead. Combining those failures with surrendering turnovers is a recipe for disaster.
There is still a month left in the regular season to find a solution, but Virginia’s schedule is going to get significantly more difficult going forward. Road dates with No. 10 Clemson, No. 12 Notre Dame and No. 20 Pittsburgh are on tap, plus a home game against No. 21 Southern Methodist. The other two games are a home fight against North Carolina and a daunting road trip to Virginia Tech. None of those are easy games, and struggling in the red zone will mean guaranteed defeat against ACC powerhouses.
Virginia needs to win two games to make a bowl game. It is very likely that one of those wins will have to come against a ranked opponent. Does Coach Tony Elliott’s squad have what it takes to make it to postseason football? Only time will tell. But if the Cavaliers fail to win six games, their red zone failures will be a critical reason why. Only Kitchings and Elliott can solve this deeply-rooted problem — and if they do not, Virginia’s progress in 2024 will fall frustratingly short.
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