Virginia football is at an intriguing crossroads. Needing to win two of its final five games to secure bowl game eligibility, an appetizing opportunity awaits in the form of a home game Saturday against North Carolina. The Cavaliers started the season 4-1 but have since entered a slump after facing two tough opponents in Louisville and Clemson. However, that is not to say that Virginia has played poorly, as they have held a lead at one point in both losses and have scored an average of 25.5 points in those games.
This match with the Tar Heels could be a chance for the Cavaliers to push closer to bowl game eligibility, as North Carolina is the only team left on their schedule with a losing record in the ACC. A tale of one program on the rise and the other in a steep decline, this is as close to a must-win game as it gets for Coach Tony Elliott and company.
Both teams sit in a pivotal spot coming into this rendition of The South’s Oldest Rivalry. Virginia has bowl game eligibility on the horizon, but there is a formidable slate of games ahead. A win against the Tar Heels means the Cavaliers only have to pull off one upset victory.
“We're sitting here 2-2 in the ACC and we got a chance to finish 6 if we take care of business,” Elliott said. “Still playing for everything that we started the season playing for, so the focus is to really learn from this past weekend and focus on things we can control, get better.”
However, if Virginia fails to take care of business Saturday, the path to a bowl game is nearly impossible — with zero remaining games above a projected 50 percent probability of victory. North Carolina is desperate for a win to turn the tide of its season, as a fifth straight loss would be insurmountable if the Tar Heels want to earn a bowl game. The stakes are uber-high as these rivals clash for the first time in 2024. This matchup has become a must-watch affair as of late — highlighted by the Cavaliers having stolen a monumental upset victory in Chapel Hill, N.C. last season.
Virginia may come into this matchup with a completely different offense from the one that defeated the Tar Heels last year, but it is arguably more high-powered and dynamic. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who was not the starter for the game last year, will lead the Cavaliers. The key for Colandrea will be finding open receivers and being confident in his dual-threat ability. North Carolina ranks 15th in the ACC in sacks and has only forced five turnovers all year. If Colandrea can maintain his composure, Virginia will have no problem generating offensive success.
“I think [Colandrea] is improving every single week and taking pride in that. Not that he didn't before,” Elliott said. “Now that he's having success, he's taking care of the football — it's something that he's finding a little bit more excitement in.”
Unlike the promising development of Colandrea and his offense, the Tar Heels’ season was derailed early. Graduate quarterback Max Johnson suffered a long-term injury in the season opener against Minnesota and will not play Saturday. While North Carolina still managed to start 3-0 after losing Johnson, it followed that up by surrendering 70 points to James Madison in a downright disgraceful home loss. To make matters worse, the Tar Heels have now lost four straight games and are still winless in conference play. For a team that was ranked 10th in the nation when they last played the Cavaliers, North Carolina has made quite the descent.
Even so, Virginia is not going to receive a leisurely victory. It will have to focus on reestablishing the run game, which was nonexistent against the Tigers last weekend. Graduate running back Kobe Pace and junior running back Xavier Brown both have the skills to burst through gaps and create big plays but have been inconsistent due to questionable offensive line play. Should these running backs come out firing on all cylinders, fans can expect them to run wild against a clearly weak Tar Heel defensive line.
On the other side of the ball, Virginia returns most of their key defenders that helped them upset North Carolina last year. Players like senior linebacker James Jackson — who is likely to return from injury — plus sophomore linebacker Kam Robinson and senior safety Jonas Sanker all made crucial plays that contributed to the 2023 victory. Now, they return with an extra year of experience and will look to once again contain the Tar Heels.
This will not come easy, as North Carolina’s junior running back Omarion Hampton has been an absolute force this year. Hampton rushed for over 100 yards last year against the Cavaliers and has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game so far this year. While containing Hampton will be challenging, it is necessary for a Virginia victory.
“With Mr. Hampton, he's the best in the league and one of the best in the country,” Elliott said. “He's big, physical, has great contact balance, very decisive when he runs. He doesn't give you an opportunity to get him before he gets going.”
Stopping Hampton is priority number one. Look for the Cavalier defense to stack several players at the line of scrimmage to do so, and as a result, dare senior quarterback Jacolby Criswell to pass the ball. To limit Criswell, Sanker and the rest of the secondary will look to hone in on graduate receiver J.J. Jones and senior tight end Bryson Nesbit, who have had very solid seasons so far. If Virginia can contain Hampton and Criswell’s favorite passing targets, the likelihood of a crucial triumph looks promising.
With a Family Weekend crowd filling the stadium and both teams desperate for a win, expect the Cavaliers to try to start hot and pull off the win at home. But, if this game is like last year’s, nothing will be decided until the end. North Carolina still holds the series advantage with 66 wins to the Cavaliers’ 59. However, if Virginia closes the gap even further, it will mean big things for its 2024 campaign. The quest for a bowl game is at the forefront for the Cavaliers — and that means earning a victory Saturday is essential. Kickoff is at noon and will be broadcast on The CW, as Elliott’s squad eyes another ACC win.
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