Three weeks ago, junior Gary Martin had an incredible run at the ACC Cross Country Championships, producing an event record time of 22:17.6 to claim Virginia’s first individual ACC men’s title since 2010. Last week, Virginia won the team event at the NCAA Southeast Regional on its way to qualifying for the NCAA Cross Country Championships.
But, in spite of those achievements, the Cavaliers may struggle at the NCAA Championships, scheduled for 10:20 a.m. Saturday in Madison, Wis. History suggests as much — Virginia’s men have never won an individual or team title at the NCAA Championships, and the team has not finished in the top 15 since 2013.
Even with strong performers like Martin and junior Will Anthony, the current team lacks the depth to compete with the country’s best. The rest of Virginia’s runners have not come close to keeping pace with the junior duo — at the ACC Championships this month, Martin and Anthony each placed inside the top five, but the next closest Cavalier competitor landed in 19th.
It cost Virginia in that race. The Cavaliers finished fourth as a team — behind Wake Forest, Stanford and North Carolina — largely because their third, fourth and fifth finishers did not stack up with those of their competitors.
That problem may be exacerbated at the NCAA Championships, which will have a similar caliber of competition to the Nuttycombe Invitational — the Sept. 27 race in Madison saw Anthony place 15th and Martin 18th, with no other Cavalier finishing inside the top 80. The Cavaliers landed in 11th out of 24 teams, by far their lowest finish of the season.
Nuttycombe also took place on the same course the Cavaliers will be running Saturday — the Thomas Zimmer Championship Course. The only difference this weekend will be a shift in distance, as the course will be extended from 8k to 10k for the NCAA Championships.
In that respect, there lies some hope about what Virginia might be able to accomplish in the national race. The NCAA Southeast Regional, which took place Nov. 15, represents the only 10k race the team has competed in this season. The Cavaliers placed five runners inside the top 26 on their way to winning the 33-team event, improving their fifth-place finish from a year prior.
Promisingly, Virginia beat out several teams that it finished behind at Nuttycombe, including North Carolina, Wake Forest and Eastern Kentucky. But while the Cavaliers appeared to benefit from the increased distance at the NCAA Southeast Regional, it is worth noting that none of the the current top nine teams in the country competed in the event, as they all reside in different regions.
Virginia, who currently sits No. 11 in the rankings, will have a tall mountain to climb to defeat all nine of those teams and win a national title. The NCAA Championships field will be the most competitive the Cavaliers have come up against in 2024, and even with a potential boost from the longer course, Virginia’s depth behind Martin and Anthony will likely hold them back.
Even on the individual side of things, though the Cavaliers’ star duo figures to be near the front of the pack, it would be a surprise to see either Martin or Anthony take the solo title.
Martin tends to be stronger in shorter distance races, which was showcased in his qualification for the 1,500-meter event at the U.S. Olympic Team Trials last summer. The vast majority of his accolades have come in the 1,500-to-3,000 meter range, including an Honorable Mention in the All-American Outdoor 1,500 meters and First Team All-American Indoor finish in the mile during the 2024 track season.
Martin has shown improvement in longer events this season. He won the Panorama Farms Invitational and the ACC Championships despite finishing 13th and eighth, respectively, as a sophomore in 2023. But even with those positive developments, it will remain a near impossible task for him to win a national title, given he placed 219th at the NCAA Championships last season.
As for Anthony, the extended distance should play in his favor. During the 2024 outdoor track season, he set a program record in the 10,000-meter and placed 18th in the event at the NCAA outdoor track and field championships. On the grass this season, he ran a personal best in the 8k at the ACC Championships, showing continued growth as a cross country runner.
Anthony was Virginia’s top finisher at last year’s NCAA Championships, placing 61st overall and eighth among sophomores. With another year of training under his belt and marked improvements this season, he should push his way closer to the top. But again, similar to Martin, it would be a real shock to see him run the table and earn the individual title.
All in all, team and individual title expectations should be tempered ahead of Saturday’s race. The Cavaliers simply lack the depth possessed by the nation’s top cross country programs. And Virginia’s top runners, Martin and Anthony, placed only eighth and ninth respectively at the NCAA Southeast Regional. With a huge 10k race looming, and an NCAA Championship on the line, one can only imagine the competition will be steeper and first place finishes will be even harder to find.
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