After a 6-1 start, women’s basketball appeared to be on track to have a promising season. The lone loss was a smackdown at No. 10 Oklahoma, and losing to a top-10 SEC team on the road is not cause for concern. But over the past three weeks, the Cavaliers have gone from hoping to make the NCAA Tournament to barely avoiding last place in the ACC. Frankly, for Virginia women’s basketball, the great big problem is simple. This team cannot shoot the long ball whatsoever — and as a result, is on a collision course to a complete failure of a season.
As a team, the Cavaliers make just 29.7 percent of their three-point shot attempts. It is worth noting that this already ugly number is inflated by the individually strong efforts of sophomore guard Kymora Johnson and her 40.9 percent mark. Six Cavaliers have attempted 15 or more three-point shots this season, but Johnson is the only one who has made more than 32 percent of their attempts. Without Johnson, the team’s three-point percentage goes down to an abysmal 26.3 percent — which would rank worst in the ACC.
Having a strong three-point shooting percentage does not guarantee victory, but it certainly helps avoid losing. For example, comparatively, last year’s squad went 16-16 but shot 30.9 percent from three-point range sans-Johnson’s stats.
That 2023-24 team also had more veteran experience, with fifth-year forward Camryn Taylor and graduate forward Sam Brunelle leading the frontcourt. On the other hand, this 2024-25 team features five newcomers out of the 11 Cavaliers who have seen game action thus far.
With poor shooting, inexperience and a schedule that began with easy competition and will now move towards conference play, the future of this team is in serious doubt. The alarm bells started ringing Nov. 28, with Virginia only beating Green Bay by five points. In that close win against a mid-major program that should have been beaten handedly, the Cavaliers shot just 28.5 percent from three-point range — significantly below the expectation of at least 35 percent against inferior competition.
An ugly win is certainly preferable over a pretty loss, but their next game was an absolute embarrassment. Against Washington State Nov. 29, Virginia failed to score in the final two minutes and 18 seconds of a 75-74 loss. While the Cavaliers did shoot 35 percent from deep, they failed time and time again to score in clutch moments. Just one basket in the final two minutes would have been enough to eke out a win. That didn’t happen.
Then in a Nov. 30 loss against Wyoming, an even bigger issue became frustratingly apparent — Johnson carries this team all by herself, rarely getting any help from most of her teammates. She scored 26 of Virginia’s 66 points, while the other eight Cavaliers who played in that game struggled. Other than Johnson and junior guard Yonta Vaughn, no one scored more than seven points. During this game, with Johnson’s three-point statistics subtracted, Virginia shot a lousy 21.4 percent from deep against another mid-major program.
To be fair, sometimes scoring droughts happen. But the manner in which these scoring droughts happen and are manifested can be mitigated. When the Cavaliers are struggling, the solution needs to be to give Johnson more shot opportunities. As the best shooter on the team, the solution — much like a song needing more cowbell — is always to let her do what she does best. She already leads the team in shot attempts, and she should be shooting even more than the 5.5 three-point attempts she averages per game.
For now though, Virginia will continue to struggle. At 7-5, the Cavaliers currently rank 14th in the ACC, and all of those wins are against aggressively mediocre competition. That’s a far cry from the expectations of a team that boasts several four-star recruits, including Johnson herself. What’s worse, Virginia has zero wins against Power Four competition, and has lost those four contests by a combined 69 points.
In their most recent Power Four games against Auburn Dec. 5 and Boston College Dec. 8 — both of which rank outside the top eight teams of their conferences — the Cavaliers made just 12.5 percent of their three-point attempts. That is unfathomably awful, and Virginia has not even begun to face its toughest competition yet.
With an 0-4 record against Power Four competition and all of their wins coming against mid-major programs, it is extremely likely that Virginia will struggle against the ACC — which features six ranked teams.
This team would be lucky to even win a handful of ACC games. Any faint hopes of making it to the NCAA Tournament — or even a decent seed in the National Invitational Tournament — have been squashed by the Cavaliers losing four of their last five games. After facing Coppin State Saturday, every remaining regular season game will be against an ACC team. Virginia’s issues are clear and painfully apparent, so it is about time to seriously address them — but it may already be too late.
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