After it all — the flabbergasting early losses, the seesaw of drudgery, the bright starts in conference games that dimmed and then darkened in the second half — it comes down to this, to one game, a chance to somehow salvage a postseason berth.
Virginia’s regular-season finale against No. 9 Duke, Saturday at 3 p.m. at Klöckner Stadium, is a battle for the final spot in the ACC Tournament. The Cavaliers (6-7, 0-3 ACC), the nation’s preseason No. 4 team, never expected to be in this position.
Three beat writers discuss how they got here and how they might rescue something from this season.
Explain the nosedive from the preseason rankings. What happened to this team?
Michael Liebermann, Sports Editor: A lot of things happened. Kind of a storm of them. The program’s three most-heralded offensive freshmen redshirted with injury, for one thing. McCabe Millon wobbled in assuming a quarterback role that stretches his skillset. Midfield transfers — Charles Balsamo from Duke and Johnny Hackett from Bryant — failed to pan out and are underperforming. Earlier in the season, when things looked their dreariest, there was a sapping goalie battle and a since-aborted attempt at instituting a new clearing scheme. In summary, it has been a perfect storm.
Sam Chun, Staff Writer: Replacing the 162 combined points and veteran presence of Connor Shellenberger and Payton Cormier is quite a tall task. While Virginia should have been expected to at least be a ranked team at this point in the season, offensive holes and a lack of experience in comparison to previous years have proven to be problems down the stretch against stout competition. USILA having Virginia at No. 4 heading into the season, therefore, may have been a bit generous.
Eleanor Lynch, Staff Writer: The Cavaliers have played tight in big moments and loose in the fundamentals this season. They've unraveled in games they were supposed to win, like against Richmond and Ohio State. Part of the issue seems to lie in communication — missed rotations and careless turnovers have been far too common — but it's also more simple than that. The defense hasn’t looked good, either, and the numbers are revealing almost across the board.
Which shortcoming has menaced the team the most?
ML: Possessions. Virginia, across all the things that contribute to possessions, is coming up short. It languishes at 40th in the nation in faceoff winning percentage and 44th in clearing percentage. It ranks 26th in turnovers per game, and some of those have seemed to be simple ones, balls evading sticks on simple passes. The Cavaliers, in every year since 2016, have ranked first or second in ground balls per game — this season they rank eighth. The result is the nation’s 62nd-best time of possession. That’s not going to win anybody many games.
SC: Offensive firepower. While saying it feels like beating a dead horse, the lack of attackmen who can score at will, or at least have the gravity to pull defenders off other shooters, has made the offense difficult to watch at many times this season. Millon was expected to take a leap following a phenomenal freshman season, but his job has become much harder without being able to play off Shellenberger and Cormier. Virginia averaged 13 goals per game in conference play last season and got 65 total goals from Cormier — they are averaging fewer than nine this year and will likely go without a 35-goal scorer. It has been a precipitous drop-off.
EL: Second-half collapses have been Virginia's Achilles’ heel, especially in conference play. Time and again, the Cavaliers play competitive first halves only to drop that strong position after the break. They were tied with No. 6 Notre Dame deep into the third quarter and then collapsed in a 12-7 loss. They trailed No. 2 Maryland by just one goal early in the fourth quarter and lost 12-6. They completely capitulated against No. 8 North Carolina, and while they played No. 10 Syracuse tightly the entire game, they failed to close things out. Virginia has not shown the edge it needs to grind out wins.
What needs to happen Saturday for Virginia to win?
ML: Duke is physical and ridiculously athletic. You can see that, even through a television screen, and you could hear it, in repeated head-shaking statements from Coach Lars Tiffany and graduate attackman Jack Walshe, in their media availability Wednesday. Virginia needs to withstand all that, somehow. It also needs to win the transition game. The Cavaliers, of course, are renowned for their blazing style of play, and the Blue Devils this season may explode even faster in transition. To score in transition, but not to concede in transition? That, perhaps, is the key.
SC: While Duke’s offense has struggled lately, a shootout is likely not the recipe for success for Virginia. If the Cavaliers can hold the Blue Devils below 10 goals, they have a chance. They will need stellar play from senior goalie Matthew Nunes and relentless pressure from senior defenseman Ben Wayer. Nunes and Wayer can also play instrumental roles in Virginia’s offense, as they found success pushing the ball deep against Lafayette’s 10-man ride last week. While they won’t face as aggressive of a ride against Duke, the Cavaliers’ best bet will be to score in transition before the Blue Devils can set up their defense.
EL: Saturday is not just another game — it is Virginia's entire season condensed into 60 minutes. To beat Duke, Virginia are going to have to execute at a level fans have not consistently seen all year. It has to start with the basics — faceoffs, better shot selection and improved ground-ball play. Against a team like the Blue Devils, who thrive on capitalizing off of turnovers, possession is everything. Junior attackman Truitt Sunderland and junior attackman Ryan Colsey need to have big performances. More than anything, Virginia has to play like a team with its back against the wall — because it is. A flat performance will end the season. A complete one just might save it.
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