Editor’s note: As of Saturday, April 5, both Spanberger and Earle-Sears have clinched their respective party’s nomination, as no other opponents qualified for the primary ballot from a major party. Virginia will have its first female governor after voters decide between the two candidates in the Nov. 4 general election.
Voters in Virginia will head to the polls June 17 with the opportunity to all-but-confirm the election of Virginia’s first female governor.
The two candidates expected to win their respective primaries are former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican. Victory for either of these candidates would result in Virginia’s first female governor, with Earle-Sears potentially becoming the first Black female governor in U.S. history. One other candidate, former State Sen. Amanda Chase, is also vying for the Republican nomination.
Incumbent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin will be ineligible to run for re-election, as Virginia’s governors are prevented from seeking consecutive terms. That leaves Earle-Sears and Spanberger both vying for their respective party nominations in the primary, hoping to meet in the Nov. 4 general election in what will likely be a hard fought race.
To appear on the ballot, potential candidates must submit 10,000 signatures by April 3, including at least 400 from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts, something both Earle-Sears and Spanberger have achieved. According to Kyle Kondik, director of communications for the University’s Center for Politics, Earle-Sears faces a more competitive Republican primary, challenged by former Republican legislators Dave LaRock and Chase, though Earle-Sears remains the favorite. Spanberger is expected to dominate the Democratic primary, currently running unopposed.
Beginning her career as a federal law enforcement officer with the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, Spanberger later joined the CIA as a case officer. She also has a track record of winning competitive races — in 2018, she became the first woman to represent Virginia’s 7th congressional district, a district that Trump had carried in 2016. She then won re-election twice before retiring to run for governor.
In the House, Spanberger worked on laws addressing issues like fentanyl overdoses, protecting natural resources and veteran support. Spanberger also championed working to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed and signed under President Biden. She grew up in Henrico County and graduated from the University, and currently lives in Virginia with her husband and three daughters.
Earle-Sears has served in the U.S. Marine Corps, the Virginia State Board of Education and the U.S. Census Bureau, and she was first elected in 2001 to the House of Delegates from the Hampton Roads area. She is the first female Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, presiding over a Democratic-led Senate for her entire term. Earle-Sears is a native of Kingston, Jamaica, and she currently lives in Virginia with her husband and two daughters.
National politics have already come up in this race with key issues including federal job cuts by President Donald Trump, education policy and diversity, equity and inclusive initiatives. According to Kondik, the race will feel the impact of national politics, which will work to support Democrats.
“Virginia voters often vote for the party that does not hold the White House,” Kondik said. “This basic fact combined with Virginia’s recent political evolution into a Democratic-leaning state in federal elections means that Democrats probably should have a leg up in the Virginia gubernatorial election.”
Spanberger currently has a lead in the limited public polls conducted of this race, but is it too early to name her the favorite with a large percentage of voters undecided.
Furthermore, Kondik said the federal worker layoffs spurred by Trump and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency will work in Spanberger’s favor, especially as Earle-Sears has already come under fire by Democrats for recent comments she made in support of DOGE. The cuts could have a disproportionate impact in Virginia, which has around 145,000 federal workers.
According to Kondik, Republicans can still win the governor’s race as they did four years ago. However, they now face the dual challenge of being the party in power in Washington while also lacking key issues which could hurt Democrats — such as the backlash to school closures during the pandemic that were instrumental in securing Youngkin’s victory in 2021.
Keshav Vermani, University Democrats campaign chair and third-year College student, also foresees Spanberger’s win given the Republican power in national government. Furthermore, he considers Spanberger to be in touch with the federal bureaucracy and how governments should be run. He said she leads a campaign based on more moderate views, all of which should boost her chances of winning the election.
“I think it’s definitely a more middle-run campaign — I wouldn’t say it’s incredibly progressive,” Vermani said. “People that support Spanberger are people that want to return to normalcy, people that support government programs like Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP federal assistance and funding to public schools.”
Vermani described Spanberger’s campaign as the “everyday Americans campaign.” He also said that Spanberger is focused on serving first and foremost as governor and not using it as a stepping stone to boost herself to higher political offices.
“When I look at her candidacy, I don't see a person that's looking to just jump from governor's mansion to Senate to presidency,” Vermani said. “I see a person that wants to do the job and do it well, and I think her time in the Congress reflected that [as she] support[ed] legislation that is aligned with not just Democratic priorities, but American priorities.”
Vermani said Youngkin did not share the same bipartisan focus during his term as governor. According to Vermani, Youngkin vetoed many bills solely because they were not proposed by Republicans, who never controlled the Senate during his term. This left Youngkin with the most bills vetoed by any governor in Virginia history, which Vermani said could hurt any future ambitions he may have for higher offices, such as the presidency.
Second-year College student Lillian Buchanan is a member of Network of Enlightened Women — a group for conservative university women. Buchanan supports Earle-Sears both because of Earle-Sears’ background and key issues she cares about.
“Both these candidates are women, but more than this, [Earle-Sears] is a veteran, she served as a Marine, and she's also an immigrant from Jamaica and she's a Black woman, and I think that that's really, really cool,” Buchanan said.
Buchanan also cited issues including promoting parental input in a child’s education and transgender women competing in sports to be some on which she agrees with Earle-Sears’ views.
While Vermani touted Spanberger’s bipartisanship as a strength to pass laws for the good of all Virginians, Buchanan believes that Spanberger is focusing on her bipartisanship as a tactic to most likely swing more voters.
“I think that is kind of a tactic used called overreach, where you are really on one end of the political spectrum, but you kind of pretend to be more [bi]partisan than you are so that you satisfy the middle,” Buchanan said.
Buchanan said voter fatigue will play a prominent role in the leadup to this election. Immediately following the presidential election, she said both candidates will have to wrestle with voter mobilization after a presidential election that was “more exhausting than normal.”
Both students acknowledged the sway that the federal workers in Virginia may have. Buchanan said she agrees with the premise of DOGE to reduce waste, fraud and abuse in the federal government, although she understands the implementation of DOGE’s job cuts has been hard on many individuals. Vermani said he finds the cuts to federal spending and jobs worrisome and predicts this subject will play a prominent role in the race.
“My biggest fear is that we fire so many federal workers in Northern Virginia and a lot of places that are reliant on these individuals,” Vermani said. “Do I think the federal government does everything right? No, I don't think anyone thinks that, but I think they have a substantial role to play in American life.”
Despite differing opinions on the race, both Vermani and Buchanan believe Spanberger will win the general election later this year.
“I [do] believe that Spanberger will win the election,” Buchanan said. “I’m kind of a realist.”
Buchanan said that other factors such as women’s healthcare and DEI policies will probably hurt Earle-Sears and lessen her chances of winning the election.
“[This] fear [of] what's going to happen to abortion, and what is it going to be like to be a woman? What is it going to be like to be a minority? I don't think that [those subjects are] on her side,” Buchanan said. “But then again, Trump still won, and he's highly controversial.
She added that it is still too early to tell, even if Spanberger has an early edge.
Buchanan addressed the gender dynamics she foresees in a race between two women. According to Buchanan, people typically vote aligning with their party rather than gender preferences. She said she is glad that in this race, no matter who wins, gender can not be pinned as the deciding force that unfairly gave one candidate the advantage.
“I’m glad that it’s two women campaigning against each other … [so that] the sex of the candidate doesn’t matter,” Buchanan said. “No matter who wins, it’s not like, oh, well we just lost because we have a female candidate.”
Vermani said that parties have a tendency to nominate a candidate that matches the opposing candidate in terms of demographics such as gender. He said he is also glad that policy, rather than gender, will be the primary determinant of this election.
“When you equalize the race just based on those characteristics, it makes everything based on policy, which I think is great,” Vermani said. “It totally puts [the candidates] on even footing, where there are no conversations that can arise based on misogyny, [but instead] just based on policy considerations and what the people of Virginia want from the next governor.”
A representative from College Republicans could not be reached for comment.
Primary elections will take place June 17, and the general election will occur Nov. 4.
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